In the Trump Era, 'Money Move'... Funds Withdrawn from Banks Went to OO [Aldon Sseuljap]

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The capital market is shaking ahead of the second term of Trump in the United States.

The exchange rate started to move first,

and the demand deposits of banks, considered as standby funds, have decreased by about 11 trillion won in just half a month,

showing a clear 'money move'.

In this chaotic period, where is the large-scale capital heading?

Let's also explore the future investment direction through this.

Over 10 Trillion Won Withdrawn from the Five Major Banks in Half a Month

Funds are flowing out of banks like a receding tide.

As of the 20th, the demand deposits of the five major domestic banks (KB Kookmin, Shinhan, Hana, Woori, NH Nonghyup) stood at 586.3618 trillion won,

down by 11.3925 trillion won compared to 597.7543 trillion won on the 31st of last month.

In about 15 days, more than 10 trillion won in deposits have been withdrawn from banks.

Demand deposits have much lower interest rates than savings deposits but allow free deposits and withdrawals, thus classified as 'standby funds.'

The background for the massive outflow of funds from banks

is gaining traction with the analysis that the investment attractiveness has sharply declined because the interest rates on savings and time deposits are less than 3%.

Currently, even with various preferential interest rates applied, the interest rates on savings and time deposits at commercial banks are only around 3.5-3.6%.

The fact that bank funds have sharply decreased by more than 10 trillion won in less than a month

means that bank depositors actively withdrew their money.

Where Did the Funds Withdrawn from Banks Go?

The funds exceeding 10 trillion won withdrawn from banks

appear to have flowed into the U.S. stock market and virtual assets.

According to the Korea Securities Depository, the amount of U.S. stocks held by domestic investors

on the 7th of this month, the day after President Trump's election was confirmed,

surpassed 100 billion dollars for the first time ever.

From the 7th to the 11th, it exceeded 100 billion dollars for five consecutive business days,

and as of the 21st, it was recorded at 103.749 billion dollars (about 145.8192 trillion won).

The investor deposits, considered as standby funds in the stock market, also showed volatile changes.

According to the Korea Financial Investment Association, investor deposits decreased from 50.5866 trillion won on the 31st of last month to 49.89 trillion won on the 6th of this month,

and as of the 20th, recorded 49.8128 trillion won, falling below 50 trillion won.

This is a sharp decrease of about 10 trillion won compared to 59.4948 trillion won at the beginning of this year.

As foreign investors withdrew and the domestic stock market weakened,

domestic investors also seem to be leaving the stock market itself, resulting in reduced trading volume.

Yonhap News

Meanwhile, the virtual asset market is also heating up after a long time.

As of the 22nd, the market capitalization of Bitcoin on the global virtual asset platform CoinMarketCap was 272 trillion won.

Bitcoin's price surpassed 99,000 dollars for the first time ever,

and is now on the verge of reaching the 100,000-dollar mark.

On the 13th, the daily trading volume of Upbit, the fifth largest exchange globally and the largest in Korea, reached 25 trillion won, showing signs of overheating.

Researcher Park Sang-hyun of iM Securities said, "Bitcoin is the asset to watch during the Trump trade gap period because it is difficult to expect strong upward momentum in the stock and bond markets, so liquidity is likely to flow into the cryptocurrency market. Moreover, the continued interest rate cut cycle by the U.S. Federal Reserve and other major central banks creates a favorable environment for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin."

However, he added that Bitcoin's price also shows the possibility of correction.

Researcher Park said, "The strong rally in Bitcoin prices driven only by expectations of regulatory easing and liquidity increases the possibility of correction. If inflation risks re-emerge, Bitcoin prices may also face increased downward pressure, which should be kept in mind."

Bright Outlook for the U.S. Stock Market Next Year... Exodus of Emerging Market Funds Intensifies

With expectations for Trump's second term,

funds from around the world are flocking to the U.S. stock market.

This phenomenon is expected to continue next year as well.

Global investment bank Goldman Sachs Asset Management stated in its report '2025 Asset Management Outlook: Reasons for Rebalancing'

that "the U.S. stock market will remain attractive next year."

They analyzed that although there are risks due to concentration in some large-cap stocks, the U.S. stock market is still an attractive investment destination.

Accordingly, emerging market funds are already flowing massively into the U.S.

According to financial information provider EPFR, about 7.4 billion dollars (approximately 10.3 trillion won) flowed out of emerging market equity funds from the 7th to the 13th of this month.

This is the largest weekly outflow since August 2015.

Meanwhile, 55.7 billion dollars flowed into U.S. equity funds during the same period.

This is also the second-largest weekly inflow since 2000.

Wall Street is pouring out optimistic forecasts that the S&P 500, one of the three major U.S. stock indices, will rise further next year.

BMO Capital Markets projected the S&P 500 to reach 6,700 next year, about 14% higher than the current level.

Morgan Stanley forecasted 6,500.

UBS predicted a golden era for the U.S. stock market, expecting the S&P 500 index to rise to as high as 7,000 next year.

This implies a more than 16% surge in the S&P 500 index by next year.

However, risks include retaliatory tariffs from trading partners due to Trump's America First policy, expanding fiscal deficits, and geopolitical tensions.