Retreat of 50 Miles Per Gallon Driving Range by 2030
Donald Trump, the President-elect of the United States, is reportedly considering significantly lowering fuel efficiency requirements for new cars and light trucks to hinder the Biden administration's policies promoting the transition to electric vehicles, Bloomberg News reported on the 19th (local time).
According to sources, Trump’s advisers plan to review the fuel efficiency standards finalized last June. They are also targeting the emission regulations imposed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). This is aimed at President Biden’s policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and transition the automotive industry to electric vehicles. Although Biden’s policies do not explicitly mandate electric vehicle support, critics argue that the rules are so stringent that they effectively require mass sales of electric vehicles.
The EPA regulations require improving the average vehicle mileage to about 50 miles per gallon (21 km per liter) of gasoline by the early 2030s. Automakers have invested billions of dollars in launching new electric vehicle models and factories, supported by subsidies from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), to meet these standards. However, recently, many manufacturers have been scaling back their electric vehicle initiatives due to declining demand and increasing sales losses.
Bloomberg noted that repealing fuel efficiency requirements and emission regulations recalls the first Trump administration. At that time, Trump weakened Barack Obama’s policy of raising new car fuel efficiency to over 50 miles per gallon by 2025 to about 39 miles per gallon by 2026.
During his campaign, Trump repeatedly emphasized that he would "wipe out" Biden administration policies. He also pledged multiple times to abolish the Biden administration’s electric vehicle tax credit regulations.
Joseph Shapiro of UC Berkeley stated that the removal of tax credit regulations could reduce future electric vehicle demand by 27%. Pellis Tintelnote of Duke University projected that abolishing the electric vehicle tax credit would decrease annual electric vehicle registrations in the U.S. by approximately 317,000 units.
They predict that in the first year after the tax credit repeal, gasoline consumption would increase by 155 million gallons, and cumulative consumption over ten years would rise by about 7 billion gallons. This corresponds to roughly 5% of the current annual gasoline consumption in the U.S. However, they also noted that since electric vehicles still represent a small share of new car sales, abolishing the tax credit would have little impact on the demand for internal combustion engine vehicles.
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