Ukraine Strikes Russian Mainland with US ATACMS... Escalation Day (Comprehensive)

Russia Plays the 'Nuclear Card' in Response
Escalation Ahead of Trump's Inauguration

Ukraine struck Russian territory with the long-range tactical ballistic missile ATACMS provided by the United States. Russia responded with a 'nuclear card,' including Ukraine as a target for nuclear attacks. As the war between Ukraine and Russia marks 1,000 days, there is speculation that it may enter a new phase.

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on the 19th (local time) at 3:25 a.m. that the Ukrainian military fired six ATACMS missiles at Bryansk Oblast near the border.

US Long-Range Missile ATACMS. AFP · US Department of Defense · Yonhap News Agency

Russia stated that its air defense system intercepted five of the six missiles and damaged the remaining one. No casualties or damage were reported.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did not confirm or deny the use of ATACMS on that day but stated that all long-range weapon capabilities would be utilized.

According to the Associated Press citing U.S. officials, Ukraine fired about eight missiles, and Russia intercepted only two.

This attack marks the first case of Ukraine striking Russian territory with Western long-range weapons. It was carried out just two days after reports emerged that the U.S. had approved Ukraine to strike Russian territory using long-range missiles. With the upcoming re-election of Donald Trump, who is skeptical about supporting Ukraine, and confirmation of North Korean troops deployed in Russia, a response was initiated.

Ukraine has requested for several months to be allowed to strike Russian territory with long-range weapons. However, the U.S. has consistently maintained that it is impossible, fearing a significant escalation due to striking Russian territory. Russia has claimed that missile attacks by NATO member countries on its territory are equivalent to NATO's direct intervention.

The launch of ATACMS on this day greatly increased the possibility of further escalation in the Ukraine crisis. Russia's position is that if the West allows Ukraine to attack Russian territory using long-range weapons, it could trigger World War III. Furthermore, with Trump, who pledged rapid peace several times shortly after taking office, about to assume office, both sides have a strong need to secure advantageous positions in preparation for ceasefire negotiations.

On the same day, Russia announced a new nuclear doctrine that relaxes the conditions for nuclear weapon use. It includes provisions that any attack by a non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear state will be considered a joint attack. It also states that nuclear weapons can be used in response to conventional weapon attacks that pose a 'significant threat' to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia and its allies. This is seen as a countermeasure to the U.S. allowing the use of long-range missiles to attack Russian territory. If Ukraine's attack on Russian territory using U.S.-supplied ATACMS is assessed as a significant threat, Russia may respond with nuclear weapons.

However, according to an anonymous U.S. official, the Associated Press reported that the U.S. has observed no changes in Russia's nuclear posture.

U.S. officials explained to The New York Times (NYT) that one of the goals of this policy shift is to send a message to North Korea that 'North Korean troops are vulnerable and should not send more forces.'

Accordingly, it was expected that Ukraine would use ATACMS targeting Kursk, where North Korean troops are reportedly deployed, but the first attack targeted Bryansk.

Vasily Kashin, director of the Integrated European and International Studies Institute at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, noted to TASS news agency that the attack was limited to a single strike in Bryansk and described it as "an attack to test Russia's response."

Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister attending the G20 summit, held a press conference on the day and said the attack was "a signal that the U.S. and the West want to escalate tensions" and "means that the Western war against Russia has entered a new phase."

Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, warned that due to the revision of the nuclear doctrine, "Ukraine's use of NATO missiles can be classified as an invasion of Russia by allied countries," and "in such a case, Russia has the right to retaliate with weapons of mass destruction anywhere where Ukraine and NATO have major facilities. This is already equivalent to World War III."