Yang Bu-nam "Innocent from a legal professional's perspective"
Kim Kyung-jin "Court likely to impose 5 million won fine due to probation concerns"
Jo Eung-chun "Political context may reduce sentence... expects 3 million won fine"
Opinions among legal experts within the political sphere were divided ahead of the first trial verdict on Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, for violating the Public Official Election Act. Some predicted a not guilty verdict, while others anticipated a fine (disqualification) that could be a fatal blow to his political career.
Yang Bu-nam, a Democratic Party lawmaker and former chief prosecutor, said on YTN Radio on the 15th, "From an objective legal professional's perspective, I think this case will result in a not guilty verdict." Yang summarized, "In short, some of the statements in the indictment that claim Lee Jae-myung lied are not true. They fabricated some statements by piecing together unrelated words to make it seem like he said them. Even if he did say some of those things, the Public Official Election Act requires the facts of the act itself, which is a matter of subjective perception. Moreover, even if it is an act, it must be related to voters' ability to evaluate the candidate's qualifications and capabilities, which is not the case here."
He also said, "Regarding the Baekhyeon-dong issue, if the testimony given during the National Assembly audit is proven false, the person can be prosecuted for perjury, so there is no need for an investigation," adding, "He should not be investigated."
The trial Lee is facing concerns two statements made during the 20th presidential election period. One is Lee's remarks in a broadcast interview about the late Kim Moon-gi, former head of Development Division 1 at Seongnam Urban Development Corporation, who was the key figure in the Seodaecheong development project: "I did not know during my time as mayor," and "He was a subordinate staff member, so I don't remember."
The other is related to allegations of preferential treatment in changing the land use of the Korean Food Research Institute site in Baekhyeon-dong during the Gyeonggi Province National Assembly audit, where Lee said, "The Ministry of Land requested the land use change, and we had no choice but to comply," and "The Ministry threatened to accuse us of dereliction of duty."
On the other hand, there are politicians with legal backgrounds who assess the possibility of a guilty verdict.
Kim Kyung-jin, a former People Power Party lawmaker and prosecutor, predicted on CBS Radio, "I think a fine of more than 5 million won will be imposed." Kim said, "There are two criminal charges, and the case was fiercely contested in court. Considering the sequential testimonies of public officials, a sentence more severe than disqualification from election seems likely." However, he added, "It would be burdensome for the court to impose a suspended sentence or higher, so I expect a fine of about 5 million won."
Similarly, Cho Eung-cheon, a former Reform New Party lawmaker and prosecutor, cited the ruling party's disorder and the fact that Lee's wife, Kim Hye-kyung, received a 1.5 million won fine the day before as mitigating factors. He said, "The sentencing guidelines range from 2 million to 8 million won, and if aggravated, from 5 million to 10 million won, but considering mitigating factors, it will be around 3 million won."
Both former lawmakers Kim and Cho foresee Lee losing his eligibility to run for office.
In particular, Cho said regarding the verdict, "Even if the fine is over 1 million won, we need to see whether it is a suspended sentence or a fine." He added, "If a suspended sentence is given, it is unlikely that the fine will fall below 1 million won in the second or third trial, which is the threshold for disqualification." He continued, "If a fine over 1 million won is imposed, it will further unite the party's ranks, but the party's reaction will vary depending on whether the fine is reduced below 1 million won in the second or third trial."
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