"No Factors for Weak Dollar Shift"
2025 Exchange Rate Forecast Revised Upward
However, 'High Start, Low Finish' Trend Maintained
Korea Investment & Securities announced on the 14th that it has raised its forecast for the KRW-USD exchange rate in the fourth quarter of this year from 1,345 won to 1,385 won.
Moon Da-woon, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, explained, "Before the market's excessive concerns about the Federal Reserve's rate cut path after the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting ease, there is no suitable factor for a weak dollar shift."
Researcher Moon assessed that this reflects concerns that Trump's strengthening of protectionism and the expansion of US-China conflicts would be unfavorable for South Korea, an export-oriented economy. He pointed out, "Until the dollar's strength weakens, there are no clear downward factors, so the downside rigidity is also strong."
However, he analyzed, "At levels above 1,400 won, caution about government intervention, level burdens, and inflows of bargain buying are expected to limit upward pressure."
Researcher Moon also revised the 2025 KRW-USD exchange rate forecast upward from 1,330 won to 1,350 won. However, he predicted that next year's exchange rate outlook will maintain a 'high start, low finish' directionality.
Researcher Moon evaluated, "The recent exchange rate rise caused by Trump's election and the Red Sweep shock reflects both long-term and temporary effects, but the temporary effects will gradually diminish."
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