Trump Era Visa Denial Rate Doubles... "Korean Company Veterans Won't Be Able to Cross Anymore, Big Problem" [US Investment Companies 'Visa' Obstacle]⑦

Biden Administration 3.2%, Trump First Term 17.8%
Industry: "Visa Issuance Will Be Harder in Trump's Second Term"
US Congress Support Shrinks... Down to One-Third in 10 Years
"With Increased Investment in the US, Active Legislative Action Is Needed"

Since the launch of the second term of the Trump administration, there has been a growing expectation among the business community that the issuance of U.S. work visas for domestic personnel will shrink. Major conglomerates and their partners such as Samsung, SK, Hyundai Motor, LG, and Hanwha, which have invested tens of trillions of won in the U.S., are in a position where securing domestic manpower is essential to smoothly operate local production facilities. However, considering the stronger nationalism and anti-immigration policy stance compared to the first term, the likelihood of acceptance is widely analyzed to have significantly decreased. From 2016 to 2020, the rejection rate of U.S. work visas (H-1B) during the first Trump administration was found to be more than twice as high as that of the Obama and Biden administrations.

According to the Korea International Trade Association and the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) on the 11th, the average H-1B rejection rate during the first Trump administration was 17.8%. This means that 17 out of every 100 visa applications were denied. Among these, the highest rate was recorded in 2018 at 24%, when Korea demanded renegotiation of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA). This rate is about 2 to 6 times higher than the 8.8% during Obama’s first term (2009?2012), 7.8% during Obama’s second term (2013?2016), and 3.2% during the Biden administration (2021?2023, with no data for 2024). If the two countries take sharply opposing positions on trade issues, it can be interpreted that Korean companies making large-scale investments in the U.S. may face difficulties in securing skilled personnel.

The 'visa barriers' under the second Trump administration are expected to be even higher than during the first term. While there are differing opinions among domestic experts as well as within the U.S. regarding the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the complete abolition of semiconductor subsidies, pessimistic views prevail regarding the expansion of 'labor regulations,' including visa issuance refusals.

Professor Heo Yoon of Sogang University Graduate School of International Studies said, "Since Trump was elected president by strongly criticizing the Biden-Kamala Harris Democratic administration’s loose immigration policies and high inflation, the second Trump administration is expected to actively pursue policies to deport illegal immigrants while strictly limiting immigration and work visa issuance." He added, "The issuance of professional visas is likely to shrink as it aligns with the 'Buy American, Hire American' policy, which favors American-made products and Americans."

If the issuance of professional visas becomes more difficult, it will inevitably have a negative impact on Korean companies investing in the U.S. According to the Korea International Trade Association, the investment amount by Korean companies such as Samsung, SK, Hyundai Motor, LG, and Hanwha in the U.S. has already exceeded $100 billion (approximately 140 trillion won). Skilled personnel are necessary to properly operate advanced facilities, and supplying them directly from Korea is important especially during the initial operation phase rather than hiring locally.

A representative of a domestic semiconductor partner company expressed concern, saying, "Even during the Biden administration, when visa rejection rates were not high, working in the U.S. on Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA) or visitor visas (B-1, B-2) was illegal, making entry and exit difficult. Under the openly anti-immigration Trump administration, visa issuance will become even more difficult." Another senior industry official said, "There is a high possibility that Korean companies will fail to send necessary personnel to their local subsidiaries on time, which could damage local operations."

However, the outlook remains pessimistic. The reaction from the U.S. political sphere is no longer what it used to be. Legislative activities for the 'Korea Partner Act,' introduced by Republican U.S. Representatives Young Kim and Michelle Park Steel of California, who both won third terms in this election, are likely to shrink. The Korea Partner Act includes provisions to issue 15,000 separate professional visas for Koreans called 'E-4,' which have the same effect as the H-1B visa.

According to the Korea International Trade Association, the number of lawmakers sponsoring the Korea Partner Act per U.S. congressional session was 118 in the 113th session (2013?2014), 87 in the 114th session (2015?2016), 85 in the 115th session (2017?2018), 57 in the 116th session (2019?2020), 54 in the 117th session (2021?2022), and 46 in the 118th session (2023?2024). The number of sponsors during the Biden administration (46) dropped to about one-third (39%) of the early second term of the Obama administration (118). However, since the sponsors of the Korea Partner Act are not concentrated in a specific party (Democratic Party), some opinions suggest it is difficult to predict a decrease in legislative activity even if a Republican 'unified government' (winning the presidential, Senate, and House elections) takes office.

In this regard, Henry Haggard, former Political Officer at the U.S. Embassy in Korea, recently urged the U.S. Congress to pass the Korea Partner Act in a post on the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) website.

Experts point out that corporate efforts alone are insufficient. They emphasize the need for an all-out campaign combining pragmatic diplomacy by the government and outreach by the private sector. Even under the Biden administration, which actively encouraged foreign companies to invest in the U.S., Korean corporate and government outreach activities were criticized for being ineffective because individual economic organization heads or corporate liaison groups in Washington D.C. met separately with the U.S. federal Congress, state legislatures, federal government, and state governments without a unified system.

An official from the Korea International Trade Association said, "As the new Congress convenes in line with the second Trump administration and addresses new agendas, the government needs to actively step forward to reintroduce the Korea Partner Act early. It is necessary to establish the logic that Korea’s increased investment in the U.S. justifies the reintroduction of the Korea Partner Act."

Park Il-jun, Senior Vice President of the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry and former Vice Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy, said, "If pragmatic diplomatic and negotiation efforts by the government, which has already experienced the Trump administration, are combined with outreach activities by the private sector, the situation can develop in a way that is a 'win-win' for both Korea and the U.S."