WSJ Interviews Anonymous Big Player in Betting Market
"French Trader with US Residency Experience"
"Forecasts Victory in 6 Swing States Based on Polling Errors"
An anonymous investor expected to earn more than 70 billion KRW in profits from former President Donald Trump's election victory news is attracting significant attention in the betting market. This individual placed a 'bold' bet exceeding 42 billion KRW based on the judgment that polls conducted in the U.S. underestimated support for former President Trump and overestimated support for Vice President Kamala Harris.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 6th (local time) that an anonymous investor known as the 'Trump whale' used four anonymous accounts on the cryptocurrency-based betting platform Polymarket to bet more than 30 million USD (approximately 42.05 billion KRW) on Trump's victory, earning nearly 50 million USD (approximately 70.05 billion KRW) in substantial profits.
Former President Donald Trump, who won the U.S. presidential election held on the 5th (local time) [Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]
The anonymous investor refused to reveal his identity in an interview with WSJ but introduced himself as 'Theo,' a French trader who wants to generate large profits. He said he had lived in the U.S. and had experience working as a trader at a bank. He started by betting millions of dollars on former President Trump under the ID 'Freddy9999' on Polymarket in August and gradually increased his investment scale, creating additional accounts in September and October.
Theo evaluated this bet as ultimately a wager on the accuracy of polls conducted in the U.S. Earlier this year, he became interested in polls and reviewed polling data from the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. He applied mathematical techniques to analyze the polls and concluded that support for former President Trump was underestimated while support for Vice President Harris was overestimated. He also pointed out that mainstream media leaned favorably toward Harris and predicted that the presence of 'shy Trump' voters, who are not captured in polls, would be significant.
In fact, until just before the election, major media and polling agencies described the race as 'neck and neck' and 'unpredictable,' presenting a very uncertain outlook. However, former President Trump quickly gained the upper hand in the early vote count, leading to criticism that these agencies again failed to read the hidden sentiments of the 'shy Trump' voters.
Based on his own analysis, Theo predicted to WSJ that former President Trump would secure 49-50% of the total votes nationwide and win in six out of seven battleground states. He especially expected Trump to win in the three Blue Wall states?Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin?that were formerly Democratic strongholds. Trump was also projected to win in Arizona and Nevada, where vote counting was still ongoing, potentially sweeping all seven battleground states.
However, WSJ noted that it cannot rule out the possibility that Theo is connected to political groups or the Trump camp. When such large bets appear in the betting market where money is directly wagered, they can also influence public opinion. This is because placing such large sums acts as a strong endorsement of Trump's chances of winning. WSJ also stated that it could not independently verify the details Theo provided about himself. Regarding this, Theo said that all investment funds are his own assets and stated, "There is absolutely no political intention."
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