The US Polling Expert Called a 'Prophet'... Faced Humiliation

17% Point (p) Error Between Predicted and Actual Presidential Election Results
Democratic Party Leads in Swing State Iowa According to Poll

There was a polling expert who was revered as "the most accurate pollster in the United States" before this U.S. presidential election. He is Anne Selzer, CEO of Selzer & Co., who was especially specialized in analyzing voter sentiment in the U.S. Midwest region and was nicknamed the "Midwest Prophet." However, with Trump’s landslide victory in this election, his previous predictions turned out to be completely wrong.

On the 4th of this month (local time), one day before the election, Selzer released a final poll analysis stating that "Iowa could turn into a Democratic-leaning state." Iowa has traditionally been one of the key battleground states.

Ann Selzer, CEO of Selzer & Co., mentioned the possibility of victory for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris in the battleground state of Iowa.
[Image source=Bloomberg capture]

At that time, Selzer explained, "It was shocking. The group of voters who said they definitely plan to vote or have already voted strongly support Harris," adding, "This includes women, college graduates, young people, and even the elderly. Issues like abortion and fatigue with Trump are influencing beneath the surface."

He predicted, "As a result, the possibility is increasing that Iowa, which was never expected to become a Democratic-leaning state, will turn that way." Thanks to his accurate analysis, Selzer was called the "Midwest Prophet," and his Iowa poll was a ray of hope for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris.

However, there was no reversal in the actual election results. President-elect Trump comfortably defeated Harris by a margin of 14 percentage points (p). Selzer’s prediction missed the actual result by as much as 17%p. It was essentially "nonsense."

Given the enormous attention Selzer received before the election, conservative supporters have been flooding social media with ridicule directed at him. Especially Trump supporters have unleashed sharp criticism such as "the real loser of this election," "he lost his entire career," and "anyone could have made better predictions than Selzer."

However, there are also those who highly appreciate Selzer’s "courage." Nate Silver, a famous American statistician, wrote on his blog before the election, "(Selzer’s poll showing Harris in the lead) is likely to be wrong probabilistically," but added, "It must have taken tremendous courage to release this analysis."