[US Election 2024]
Victory in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin
Forecast of Winning All 7 Battleground States
Republicans Expected to Sweep Both Houses
Stronger US First Policy Anticipated
Donald Trump, the Republican candidate elected as the 47th President of the United States, swept all the battleground Rust Belt states, traditionally Democratic strongholds. Defying initial expectations of a razor-thin race, former President Trump secured a landslide victory by capturing the white working-class vote in the Democratic bastion known as the 'Blue Wall,' putting him on the verge of winning all seven key battleground states. With overwhelming support in these pivotal states, Trump is set to return to the White House after four years. If the Republican Party also gains control of both the House and Senate, it is expected to accelerate the 'America First' agenda with formidable legislative, executive, and judicial power.
According to AP and other sources as of 2:34 PM Eastern Time on the 6th (local time), former President Trump had secured 292 electoral votes, significantly ahead of Vice President Harris, who had 224.
Initially, mainstream U.S. media predicted a nail-biting contest between former President Trump and Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris in seven battleground states that would decide the election outcome. However, after the votes were counted, Trump emerged victorious in all three Rust Belt 'Blue Wall' states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The battleground states are broadly divided into the Republican-leaning Sun Belt and the Democratic-strong Rust Belt. For the Democrats, winning the Rust Belt is essential to securing the White House. Among these, Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes?the most among battleground states?is the key to entering the White House.
On the previous night, Trump had already secured victories in two southern Sun Belt battleground states, Georgia and North Carolina, and clinched Pennsylvania, the most fiercely contested state, securing the 'magic number' of 270 electoral votes out of 538, thereby deciding his path to the White House. Subsequently, he sealed his landslide victory by winning Michigan and Wisconsin, also part of the Rust Belt. As of 2:34 PM Eastern Time, with 98% of votes counted in Pennsylvania, Trump led with 50.5% over Harris's 48.5%, a 2 percentage point lead. In Michigan and Wisconsin, where 99% of votes were counted, Trump received 49.7% in both states, leading Harris (48.3% and 48.8%, respectively) by 1.4 and 0.9 percentage points. Trump is also expected to win in the still-counting battleground states of Arizona and Nevada, which would mean sweeping all seven key battleground states.
Having secured an early victory in the early hours of the day, Trump became the first former president in 132 years to reclaim the White House after losing a reelection bid. In his victory speech early that morning at his home in Palm Beach, Florida, Trump called it a "great victory for the American people" and declared that "the true golden age of America is coming." He emphasized, "We will start putting America first."
Analysts attribute Trump's landslide victory to the significant impact of 'shy Trump' voters?those who support him but do not reveal their preference in polls?especially concentrated in the Rust Belt battleground states. Additionally, issues such as the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, high inflation caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, and illegal immigration swayed undecided voters toward Trump. Criticism of the Biden administration, the lack of an independent vision from Vice President Harris, and the so-called glass ceiling for women are also seen as factors that hindered Harris's campaign.
The congressional elections are also expected to end in a decisive Republican victory. The Republicans have regained the Senate majority after four years and are projected to sweep the House as well. As of 2:46 PM Eastern Time on the 6th, the Republicans had secured 201 seats in the House, needing only 17 more to reach the majority of 218. The Democrats held 184 seats. With the Republicans likely to control both chambers and six of the nine Supreme Court justices leaning conservative, legislative, judicial, and executive powers are all tilting toward the Republican side.
Thus, if former President Trump reenters the White House in January next year, he is expected to pursue a stronger America First policy line as he announced in his victory speech. Unlike his first term, which was marked by indecision, Trump's second term is anticipated to launch immediately with a strong policy drive centered on loyal advisors, focusing on banning illegal immigration, raising tariffs, and halting aid to Ukraine, prioritizing American interests both domestically and internationally. South Korea faces significant challenges, including demands for increased costs for the stationing of U.S. troops (defense cost-sharing) and the pursuit of a top-down North Korea nuclear solution through direct U.S.-North Korea negotiations.
The Washington Post (WP) assessed, "Trump promised to approach countries that show no respect for the U.S. on the world stage with an America First approach and to overturn the status quo," adding, "U.S. allies are struggling to predict what will happen next." It also noted, "Trump has praised North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un and pressured South Korea to pay more for U.S. defense in response to North Korea's nuclear threats," which has raised concerns in South Korea.
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