[US Election 2024]
Vote Counting Status in Battleground States for US Presidential Election
Donald Trump, the former U.S. president and Republican presidential candidate, is solidifying his lead by outpacing Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris in key battleground states, including the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania. For Vice President Harris, this comes after losing North Carolina, the first of the seven battleground states, and now she faces the risk of losing the Midwestern 'Blue Wall,' including Pennsylvania, which she must hold to secure victory. Watching the vote count broadcast from his Florida residence, Trump is heading to a Palm Beach event where his supporters have gathered to deliver a speech.
Trump Leads in 'Key Battleground' Pennsylvania
According to AP News and others, as of 2:47 PM Korean time on the 6th, with 90% of votes counted in Pennsylvania, former President Trump holds 51% while Vice President Harris has 48%. Early in the morning when counting began, Harris had a lead of around 60%, but this was overturned around noon. AP News explained that this shift was largely due to the early counting of mail-in ballots, which are favored by Democratic voters in this election. Pennsylvania, the largest battleground state, carries the most electoral votes among swing states, with 19 electors at stake.
While the race between the two candidates in the seven battleground states was initially tight, the vote count is gradually tilting in favor of former President Trump. North Carolina was the first state among the seven battlegrounds to finalize its outcome. AP News reported that with 89% of votes counted in North Carolina, Trump had 50.8%, securing a victory over Vice President Harris. This means Trump will claim North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes out of the 93 electoral votes at stake in the battleground states. Georgia, which started counting first, also shows Trump leading with 51% at 95% counted. Georgia also has 16 electoral votes.
Moreover, the traditionally Democratic-leaning Blue Wall Rust Belt appears to be turning red (Republican). Along with Pennsylvania, Michigan, part of the Blue Wall, shows Trump leading with 52% at 59% counted, overturning the early lead held by Vice President Harris. Wisconsin, another Blue Wall state where voting closed at 11 AM Korean time, also shows Trump ahead with 51% at 83% counted.
For Vice President Harris, this means losing the early momentum in the Blue Wall. To win this election, she must hold the three Midwestern Blue Wall Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Having already lost North Carolina, and with Trump solidifying his lead in Georgia, holding these three Blue Wall states is the only realistic path to victory for Harris. Although there are still votes remaining in areas with strong Democratic support, local media report that overturning this gap would require better performance than President Joe Biden achieved in the 2020 election.
Among the seven battleground states, southern Arizona shows Trump slightly ahead with 50% compared to Harris’s 49.2% at 53% counted. Nevada, which has the fewest electoral votes at six, has not yet begun counting.
Trump Moves to Deliver Speech, May Declare 'Election Victory'
Having gained the upper hand in the crucial battleground states, former President Trump is currently heading to the Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida, where his supporters have gathered. Local media suggest that Trump may declare victory in his upcoming speech. Vice President Harris was expected to watch the vote count at her alma mater Howard University in Washington D.C., but she reportedly has not appeared publicly as of midnight on election day.
The New York Times (NYT) reported that based on battleground state vote counts, historical voting patterns of remaining ballots, and population distribution, Trump has an 89% chance of winning 299 electoral votes to Harris’s 239. However, this analysis still leaves room for Harris to secure the magic number of 270 or more electoral votes in some scenarios.
So far, Vice President Harris and former President Trump have secured 210 and 246 electoral votes respectively. To win the presidency, a candidate must secure a majority of the 538 electoral votes allocated to the states, which means at least 270 votes.
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