47th U.S. Presidential Election Vote Counting
World Tense Over Election Results
War, Trade, Security Enter New Phase
Close Watch Amid Global Interests
As the vote counting for the 47th U.S. presidential election is underway, countries around the world are closely watching the results. Depending on whether Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris or Republican former President Donald Trump is elected, significant changes are expected, ranging from the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict to global trade and security.
Some European Union (EU) member states, whose relations have strengthened again under the Joe Biden administration, are reportedly strongly opposed to a Trump re-election, even calling it a ‘Trump electroshock.’ Trump has raised the possibility of withdrawing from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the mutual military alliance between the U.S. and Europe, which could lead to increased pressure on Europe for defense spending. Bloomberg Economics analyzed that in such a case, Europe’s debt could increase by $2.8 trillion by 2034.
Additionally, tariffs on EU steel and aluminum imposed during Trump’s first term are likely to be reinstated if he enters a second term. Trump has criticized environmental policies as a ‘Green New Scam,’ so clashes over climate crisis policies are also anticipated.
This is why the EU favors Harris’s election. Harris is expected to continue the Biden administration’s multilateralism and international cooperation approach. The U.S. think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) explained in a report last September that “U.S.-EU relations have rapidly strengthened under the Biden administration, with aligned views on China policy and the Russia-Ukraine war.”
The Russia-Ukraine war, ongoing for over two and a half years, is expected to enter a new phase depending on the U.S. presidential election outcome. Trump, who promised to end the war within 24 hours of taking office, might pressure Ukraine to cede territory or urge it to abandon NATO membership, potentially causing divisions in Europe. Bloomberg observed, “If Trump makes a deal with Putin (the Russian president) to end the war, the EU could split into countries that welcome the deal and those that must provide support independently.”
Significant changes are also expected in the Middle East, where the Israel-Hamas war has lasted over a year and there is a looming risk of full-scale conflict with Iran. Harris may pressure Israel to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza, which the Biden administration has not accomplished. Of course, Trump is also unlikely to plunge the Middle East into turmoil. However, Iran, which hopes for the restoration of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA - Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), is believed to secretly prefer Harris.
Regardless of who becomes U.S. president, a tough stance on China is expected to continue, but China apparently considers Harris the better option. Amid efforts to escape the deflationary spiral (economic downturn with falling prices) through massive stimulus measures, Trump’s 60% tariff on Chinese imports could further weaken China’s economy. Bloomberg estimates that if Trump’s tariffs on China are implemented, China’s exports to the U.S. could shrink by about 90%.
Taiwan, the heart of the global semiconductor manufacturing industry, is worried about a Trump victory. Trump criticizes the Biden administration’s semiconductor law, which provides subsidies to companies building semiconductor manufacturing bases domestically, and advocates imposing tariffs on imported semiconductors. Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and expected to chair the Government Efficiency Committee if Trump wins a second term, has even stated that Taiwan should be under China’s control.
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