New York Stock Market Starts Up on Election Day... Focus on Results Amid Tight Race

Main Presidential Election Voting Begins on the 5th... Tech Stocks Lead the Rally

The three major indices of the U.S. New York stock market are showing an upward trend in the early trading hours on the 5th (local time), the day of the presidential election. As the main vote to elect the 47th president begins and investors await the election results, investment sentiment is reviving, centered on technology stocks.

As of 10:18 a.m. in the New York stock market on this day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, focused on blue-chip stocks, is trading at 42,054.92, up 0.62% from the previous trading day. The S&P 500, centered on large-cap stocks, is up 0.76% at 5,756.15, and the Nasdaq, focused on technology stocks, is trading 0.97% higher at 18,356.64.

By individual stocks, Palantir Technologies is soaring 22.01% on strong quarterly earnings and sales outlook. Nvidia, the AI leader to be included in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on the 8th, is up 2.15%. Tesla is rising 3.78%. NXP Semiconductors is down 6.26% due to a sluggish outlook amid macroeconomic concerns. Trump Media & Technology (DJT), the operator of the social networking service Truth Social owned by former Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, is surging 16.45%.

The New York stock market fell across the board the previous day. This was a result of heightened investor caution amid increased election uncertainty. Demand for safe-haven assets expanded, causing bond yields to fall.

The election race remains unpredictable even until the day of the main vote. Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump are locked in a tight race until the final moments. According to the previous day's PBS News, public radio NPR, and polling firm Marist surveys, Vice President Harris recorded 51% support nationwide, leading former President Trump (47%) by 4 percentage points (margin of error ±3.5 percentage points). The key battleground states show mixed results depending on the polling agency. According to surveys released the previous day by political media outlet The Hill and Emerson College, former President Trump led Vice President Harris in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. Vice President Harris led Trump in Michigan. In Nevada and Wisconsin, the two candidates were tied. This is the exact opposite of the results from a New York Times (NYT) and Siena College survey two days earlier, where Vice President Harris held an advantage of 4 wins, 2 ties, and 1 loss in seven battleground states.

As important as the presidential election results is which party, Democratic or Republican, will hold the majority in Congress. If the Democrats and Republicans split control of the House and Senate, the current status quo will be maintained, and the impact on the market is likely to be limited. However, if either party gains majority control of both chambers, significant policy changes could occur in government spending or tax cuts.

Alicia Levin, Head of Equity Investment Strategy at BNY Mellon Wealth Management, said, "Whatever happens tonight, we view the market positively," adding, "We expect Congress to be divided (with Democrats and Republicans splitting control of the House and Senate), which would be the most positive outcome."

The market is also focusing on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regular meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), held over two days starting on the 6th. After the Fed cut the benchmark interest rate from 5.25-5.5% to 4.75-5.0% for the first time in September, another 0.25 percentage point cut is expected in November. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch tool, the federal funds futures market reflects a 97.3% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 0.25 percentage points at the November FOMC meeting. Investors' main focus is expected to be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference, which may provide hints about the pace of future rate cuts beyond this reduction.

Bond yields are rising. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, a global benchmark for bond yields, is at 4.35%, up 4 basis points (1bp = 0.01 percentage points) from the previous trading day. The 2-year Treasury yield is trading at 4.23%, up 5 basis points from the previous day.

International oil prices are rising. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading at $71.94 per barrel, up $0.47 (0.7%) from the previous trading day, while Brent crude, the global benchmark, is trading at $75.53 per barrel, up $0.45 (0.6%).