High Possibility of Additional Nuclear Tests as a Show of Tactical Nuclear Capability
Our military estimated on the 5th that the missile launched by North Korea was a 600mm super-large multiple rocket launcher (KN-25). The KN-25 is a ballistic missile that North Korea claims can be equipped with tactical nuclear warheads. While the test launch of the new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) 'Hwasong-19' on the 31st of last month was a threat indicating the capability to strike the United States with nuclear weapons, the launch of the 600mm super-large multiple rocket launcher on this day is interpreted as a nuclear threat to South Korea.
A Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) official stated in a press briefing that several short-range ballistic missiles launched by North Korea around 7:30 a.m. that day were "estimated to be 600mm large-caliber multiple rocket launchers based on various detected specifications." The official explained, "(The 600mm multiple rocket launcher) was previously fired northward from Pyongyang, but today it was fired from Sariwon, which is closer to the south," adding, "If fired from Sariwon, almost the entire southern coast of the Korean Peninsula falls within its range."
North Korea launched the missiles from Sariwon, Hwanghaebuk-do, towards the unmanned islet Alseom in front of Kilju-gun, Hamgyeongbuk-do, with a range of about 400 km.
The official analyzed that "instead of the usual launch sites, North Korea operated a Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL) to launch from an arbitrary location," suggesting an intention to demonstrate the capability for a surprise tactical nuclear attack against the South.
North Korea has claimed that its tactical nuclear warhead 'Hwasan-31,' revealed in March last year, can be mounted on the 600mm large-caliber multiple rocket launcher. Military authorities anticipate further provocations from North Korea, including ▲ hypersonic missile or submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) launches ▲ a 7th nuclear test ▲ space launch vehicle launches ▲ gunfire and shelling in the northwestern islands and border areas ▲ drone infiltrations ▲ and GPS signal jamming.
A JCS official stated, "Preparations for hypersonic missile launches have progressed, and SLBM launch preparations are continuously underway around the Sinpo area." The official added, "Nuclear tests are always ready," explaining, "Nuclear material production activities have been ongoing throughout the year, resulting in more nuclear material than initially expected at the beginning of the year." He further noted, "The Punggye-ri nuclear test site's Tunnel No. 3 is always in a ready state," adding, "If decided, a test could be conducted within a few days."
Military authorities expect that if North Korea conducts a 7th nuclear test, it will likely be an explosion test of a small nuclear weapon (tactical nuclear weapon) designed to be mounted on the 600mm super-large multiple rocket launcher or similar systems.
The official said, "Miniaturization of nuclear weapons is an advanced technology for any country. You only know by detonating them," adding, "If North Korea conducts a nuclear test, the priority will be on miniaturization experiments."
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