Taiwan Praying for Trump's Defeat... Aftershocks of the US Presidential Election [AK Radio]

Trump "Taiwan Semiconductors, Tariffs Like China"
Increasingly Accelerating China Taiwan Invasion Scenario

On the eve of the U.S. presidential election, the international situation surrounding Taiwan is entering a new phase. With former President Donald Trump’s reelection considered likely, concerns are growing over his potential victory in Taiwan. In particular, worries about the impact of Trump’s mentioned "cost of alliances" on Taiwan’s economy are spreading mainly among political circles and industries.

In a recent interview, Trump stated that Taiwan should pay more for the U.S.’s defense costs and made a tough remark that TSMC’s semiconductor technology was "stolen from the U.S.," suggesting that tariffs similar to those imposed on China should be applied. This directly targets Taiwan’s core semiconductor industry and is seen as a statement that could seriously damage Taiwan’s economy. However, experts are cautious about the likelihood of these remarks turning into actual policy.

Currently, the prevailing analysis is that Taiwan is not in a situation where defense cost-sharing issues similar to those with South Korea would arise in its relationship with the U.S. The U.S. military presence in Taiwan is limited to a military advisory group of several dozen personnel, which is incomparable to the large-scale garrisons in South Korea or Japan. Rather, it is widely interpreted that the remarks focus more on tariff issues.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

China appears to be actively leveraging this shift in U.S. policy trends. If Trump is elected, China evaluates Taiwan as "a pawn on the chessboard of a great power called the U.S." and is increasing pressure on Taiwan. In particular, China expresses concerns about the independence faction government led by Taiwan’s current President Lai Ching-te and is showing strategic moves to use changes in the U.S. stance to check Taiwan’s independence forces.

Projections regarding the timing of a Taiwan invasion are also rapidly changing. Previously, key dates such as the 100th anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army in 2027, the achievement of socialist modernization in 2035, and the 100th anniversary of the founding of China in 2049 were cited, but recently, the possibility of it being brought forward to 2025 is gaining traction. This is based on the analysis that China could seize strategic opportunities amid the U.S.’s dispersed military focus due to the Ukraine war and Middle East crises. In particular, Russia’s unexpectedly strong resistance in the Ukraine war may influence China’s judgment.

A military conflict in the Taiwan Strait is expected to go beyond a simple regional dispute. South Korea and Japan, due to their alliance relationships with the U.S., are naturally likely to be involved, and considering the variable of North Korea, it could directly affect security on the Korean Peninsula. Especially if North Korea carries out military provocations on the Korean Peninsula at China’s request, there are concerns that the Taiwan Strait conflict could immediately expand across the entire Korean Peninsula.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Moreover, the Taiwan Strait is a vital trade route, akin to a lifeline for Northeast Asian countries. If this area is blocked, serious disruptions could occur in energy supply and essential imports for South Korea and Japan. Additionally, Southeast Asian countries are likely to be drawn into disputes due to China’s aggressive maritime claims. In particular, the Philippines could fall directly under this influence due to its geographic proximity and alliance with the U.S.

What is especially concerning is the strong military power of Asian countries. Unlike Europe, Asian countries possess substantial conventional military forces. Unlike the Ukraine war, conflicts in Asia could escalate into full-scale wars between countries with strong military capabilities, making the risk even greater.

As a result, the Taiwan issue is no longer just a matter between the U.S. and China but a challenge for the entire international community. Especially for South Korea, due to its geopolitical location and economic interests, bipartisan cooperation and sustained attention are necessary. Regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, tensions surrounding the Taiwan Strait are expected to continue for the foreseeable future, significantly impacting the security and economy of the entire East Asia region.

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