Doomsday... Magic Number 270 Victory Scenario Revealed [US Election 2024]

[US Election 2024]
Harris Fights for Survival in Three Blue Wall States
Trump Gains Advantage if He Wins Pennsylvania

Will the United States see its first female president, or the revival of ‘Trumpism’ centered on America First? The magic number that will decide the winner of the U.S. presidential election held on the 5th (local time) is '270.' The key is to secure more than half of the 538 electoral votes allocated to each state, that is, at least 270 votes, rather than the total popular vote. Especially, how the 93 electoral votes from seven battleground states, including the largest battleground Pennsylvania, are divided will lead to various predictions of victory or defeat.

According to major foreign media, there are broadly six scenarios for this election. ▲The Democrats sweep all battleground states except North Carolina, repeating 2020 (303 votes) ▲The Republicans win, repeating 2016 (307 votes) ▲A tie (269 votes, decided by the House of Representatives), and three more possible scenarios depending on who wins Pennsylvania, which is considered the key to entering the White House. Sky News noted, "Harris or Trump? There are six possible scenarios for the U.S. election," adding, "All of this comes down to Pennsylvania."

Historically, based on so-called ‘safe’ states with clear party support such as Blue States and Red States, current Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris is estimated to have secured 226 votes, while Republican candidate former President Donald Trump has secured 219 votes. The battleground states where the outcome will be decided are ▲Pennsylvania (19 votes) ▲Michigan (15 votes) ▲Arizona (11 votes) ▲Georgia (16 votes) ▲Nevada (6 votes) ▲North Carolina (16 votes) ▲Wisconsin (10 votes).

U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris [Photo by Reuters]

The scenario where Vice President Harris has the highest chance of winning is by capturing the three Midwestern ‘Blue Wall’ Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Even if she loses in the Sun Belt battlegrounds, if she defeats former President Trump in these three states along with other Blue States, she can secure the magic number of 270 electoral votes.

Politico stated, "In this case, Harris does not even need to wait for the results from Arizona and Nevada, where mail-in ballots are counted relatively late," and added, "The surprise lead in Iowa seen in recent polls suggests Harris could be stronger in the Blue Wall." In this scenario, former President Trump secures only 268 votes. CNN, The Washington Post (WP), and others also cite this as a winning scenario for Vice President Harris.

However, this also means that losing Pennsylvania could be a significant blow to Vice President Harris. In that case, she would need to secure as many victories as possible in Sun Belt states like Georgia and North Carolina, which have the next largest number of electoral votes, making the combination to reach the magic number more complicated.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate [Image source=Getty Images Yonhap News]

On the other hand, for former President Trump, winning Pennsylvania reduces the burden of securing electoral votes in other states. If he wins just Georgia and North Carolina among the four Sun Belt battleground states, he can reach the magic number of 270. This is also considered the easiest winning scenario for former President Trump by major foreign media. The Sun Belt battleground states typically have strong Republican support, and polls have shown Trump holding a slight lead in these areas.

Another scenario is that even if former President Trump loses Pennsylvania and Michigan, he could still become the final winner by securing all other battleground states, totaling 278 votes. Politico noted, "Despite various divisive rhetoric, Trump has built the most racially diverse coalition of any Republican presidential candidate in the past 20 years," pointing out that Latino and Black support is rebounding in this election. Accordingly, he could aim for victories not only in Georgia, which has a high Black population, but also in Blue Wall battleground states. Nearly 30% of Georgia’s voters are identified as Black.

Besides, the scenario where both sides secure 269 electoral votes each, resulting in a tie, is considered unlikely. However, according to the U.S. Constitution, in such a case, the House of Representatives elects the president, which would be interpreted as a victory for former President Trump, as the Republicans currently hold the majority in the House.

Meanwhile, both candidates campaigned intensively in Pennsylvania until the last day of the election campaign. Vice President Harris made a grueling tour of five locations in Pennsylvania alone, finishing with a message of "new leadership is ready" in the major city of Philadelphia. Former President Trump also visited Reading and Pittsburgh in Pennsylvania, urging voters to judge the "incompetence of the Joe Biden-Harris administration." The New York Times (NYT) reported, "Both Harris and Trump made their final appeals to Pennsylvania voters, indicating how important Pennsylvania is," adding that "the election atmosphere remains intense."

In a poll released that day by The Hill and Emerson College, former President Trump was leading in the seven battleground states with a record of ‘4 wins, 2 ties, and 1 loss.’ This is the exact opposite result of the previous day’s NYT and Siena College poll, which showed Vice President Harris in the lead. However, since both polls are within the margin of error, the race is effectively considered tied. In a nationwide voter survey released by PBS that day, Vice President Harris led former President Trump by 4 percentage points, with 51% support.