"We Might Suffer the Same Fate"... Taiwan Fears Chinese Drones [War & Business]

Taiwan Prepares for Drone Warfare
Inspired by Ukraine's Success Against Russia's Black Sea Fleet
China's Dominance of 70% of the Global Drone Market Heightens Threat to Taiwan

On the 11th of last month (local time), Ukrainian forces conducted test flights of first-person view (FPV) drones in the Zaporizhzhia area before deploying them to the battlefield.
[Image source=Reuters·Yonhap News]

The Taiwanese government has recently attracted international attention for preparing to build an 'Anti Drone' system using low Earth orbit satellites to counter drone attacks from China. Alongside this, Taiwan has signed a contract with the U.S. government to import 1,000 suicide drones to strengthen the defense of the Taiwan Strait.

In the past, if the goal was maritime defense, countries mainly purchased aircraft carriers, battleships, or anti-ship missiles, but now drones have become more important weapons than ships. The Russia-Ukraine war clearly demonstrated how terrifyingly effective drones can be as weapons at sea. The Black Sea engagements during the Russia-Ukraine war created a new paradigm showing that a country without a single proper ship can successfully defend its maritime territory using only drones.

At the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022, the Ukrainian military did not have a single battleship or even a destroyer. This was because, during Russia's forced annexation of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine's largest military port, Sevastopol, was captured, and all battleships and destroyers there were seized by Russian forces. The only vessels Ukraine had just before the war were 20 patrol boats received as aid from Western countries.

In contrast, the Russian Black Sea Fleet was a large force commanding 75 large vessels including battleships and destroyers. Due to this disparity, Ukraine's navy was practically nonexistent, making the Black Sea battlefield at the war's outset entirely dominated by Russian forces. Naval gunfire targeting land also posed a significant threat to the Ukrainian army.

The hero that overturned this disadvantage was the drone. Various drones supported by the U.S. or produced domestically by Ukraine began to relentlessly harass the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Jamming drones disabled ship radars, bombing drones dropped bombs on ships, and sea drones modified from small boats targeted weak points like ammunition depots by self-destructing, causing the Black Sea Fleet's losses to snowball. By last year, the Black Sea Fleet had lost 25 ships, about one-third of its total, due to Ukrainian drone attacks. Since then, Russian forces have avoided direct naval battles as much as possible and have focused solely on defense while holed up in the Sevastopol naval base.

The country most sensitively responding to the results of the Ukraine Black Sea battlefield is Taiwan. With ongoing Chinese military provocations, the possibility that the Taiwanese navy could suffer the same fate from a large-scale Chinese drone assault in a contingency has increased. Moreover, since China controls 70% of the global drone market, it is highly likely to deploy an enormous number of drones in the Taiwan Strait, incomparable to the Ukrainian forces. The U.S. Institute for the Study of War (ISW) recently pointed out in a report, "Considering China's massive production of aerial and maritime drones, the Taiwanese navy must be prepared to rapidly deploy at least millions of drones to the battlefield in a contingency."

This is not just Taiwan's problem. With North Korea's dirty balloons potentially being replaced by Chinese drones at any time, South Korea cannot feel secure either. National security cannot be guaranteed simply by purchasing the most advanced weapons and warships from the U.S. We must quickly adapt to the new paradigm of drone warfare.