The Times UK Predicts 'Harris Victory' in Final Poll

U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is giving a speech at an election rally held in Philadelphia on the 27th of last month (local time).
[Image source=Yonhap News]

The British daily The Times reported that in a final poll ahead of the U.S. presidential election, Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to win.

According to The Times on the 1st (local time), a survey conducted by polling agency YouGov from the 25th to the 31st of last month among 6,600 registered voters in seven battleground states showed that Harris led former President Trump, the Republican candidate, in four of the seven battleground states.

Combining these results with the other 43 states where the voting outcome is not expected to deviate from predictions, The Times explained that Harris would secure 276 of the 538 electoral votes, defeating Trump who would get 262. In the U.S. presidential election, a candidate wins by securing more than 270 electoral votes allocated by state.

Among the key battlegrounds classified as the Midwestern "Rust Belt" (the declining industrial region around the Great Lakes), Harris led by 4 percentage points in Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), and by 3 percentage points each in Pennsylvania (19 votes) and Michigan (15 votes). In Nevada (6 votes), considered part of the "Sun Belt" (southern region with abundant sunlight), Harris was ahead by 1 percentage point.

Trump led Harris by 1 percentage point each in the other Sun Belt states of Georgia (16 votes) and North Carolina (16 votes), while in Arizona, also classified as Sun Belt, both candidates were tied at 48%.

However, the margin of error for the poll was ±4.6 percentage points in Nevada, ±4.5 in Wisconsin, ±4.4 in Arizona, ±4.2 in North Carolina, ±3.9 in Georgia and Michigan, and ±3.5 in Pennsylvania. Harris’s lead in each region falls within the margin of error.

When asked about important issues, 20% of respondents cited inflation, 14% immigration, 12% jobs and the economy, 12% protecting American democracy, and 9% abortion. The percentage of respondents who rated the economy as good rose to 59%, up from 55% in the September survey. Those who said the economy was worsening decreased from 51% in September to 49%.

Combining responses from the seven battleground states, Harris’s favorability was 44% with 50% unfavorable, while Trump’s favorability was 44% with 52% unfavorable.