[US Election 2024] Harris vs Trump Promises... Protectionism Regardless of Winner

Opportunity Economy & Abortion Rights Harris vs Tariffs & Anti-Immigration Trump
"America is a Protectionist Nation"

With just two days left until the U.S. presidential election, last-minute attention is focused on the pledges of the candidates from both major parties. As the race remains extremely close until the end, there is analysis that key campaign promises could be the decisive factor in the election outcome.

Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris appears to be distancing herself from President Joe Biden, likely due to her low approval ratings, but as Biden’s former 'number two,' she is expected to continue the Biden administration’s policies if elected. Former President Donald Trump is expected to return with an even stronger emphasis on his previously demonstrated 'America First' stance if he wins.

[Image source= Xinhua News Agency]

Harris Emphasizes Opportunity Economy and Abortion Rights

Vice President Harris has announced a middle-class strengthening pledge centered on an 'opportunity economy.' This strategy aims to appeal to the majority of middle-class voters while contrasting her image with that of former President Donald Trump, who is seen as a successful businessman. Her plan includes expanding the child tax credit to $3,600 and broadening the Earned Income Tax Credit to provide tax benefits to 100 million middle-class Americans. She also proposes raising the corporate tax rate from the current 21% to 28%, positioning herself in opposition through so-called 'wealth tax' policies.

Abortion rights are also a core pledge. Since the federal ruling Roe v. Wade, which recognized abortion rights, was overturned, over 20 states have either fully banned or restricted abortion. This move aims to resonate with women and progressive voters.

In foreign policy, she is expected to continue the Biden administration’s approach by adopting alliance-centered multilateralism.

"60% Tariffs" 'Tariff Man' Trump... 'America First'

Former President 'Tariff Man' Trump has returned with even greater force. He plans to increase tax cuts to boost corporate investment and job creation within the U.S., while also pushing for tariff hikes. He aims to impose a universal tariff of up to 20% on all imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports. Additionally, he targets lowering the corporate tax rate further from 21% during his first term to as low as 15%.

While Vice President Harris seeks to rally supporters around abortion rights, former President Trump is focusing on the issue of illegal immigration, appealing to anti-immigrant sentiments. He promises to protect American jobs by deporting large numbers of illegal immigrants who have committed serious crimes.

His foreign policy is expected to maintain the isolationist stance of his first term. Trump has previously stated that NATO allies who neglect their defense spending obligations should be left to face Russian attacks on their own.

On October 24, The New York Times (NYT) reported that if Trump wins, the next administration will be centered around the right-wing think tank 'America First Policy Institute (AFPI).' This group advocates for stronger 'Trumpism,' including mandatory pre-abortion ultrasounds, expanded oil production, withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, and imposing work requirements on Medicare beneficiaries.

Strengthening Protectionism Inevitable Regardless of Winner

However, the prevailing view is that strengthening protectionism is inevitable regardless of who wins. The rivalry for supremacy with China is also expected to intensify. According to Politico Playbook, Charles Michel, President of the European Council, recently said, "Whether Harris or Trump is in office, do you think the U.S. will no longer be a protectionist country? They are protectionist countries, and I regret this situation."

Former President Trump’s protectionist policies during his first term are well known. His administration waged major trade wars with key players such as the European Union (EU) and China, and in this election, he has pledged to impose a 60% tariff on China immediately upon returning to the White House.

Vice President Harris does not promote policies as aggressively as Trump. However, since she opposed the acquisition of US Steel by Japan’s Nippon Steel, even at the expense of an allied Japanese company, many view the strengthening of protectionism as an unstoppable trend. The Biden administration has already significantly raised tariffs targeting China’s strategic industries such as steel, aluminum, and batteries, including imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles. Through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), it is promoting the construction of domestic factories for key industries like electric vehicles and batteries within the U.S.