'North Korea's TEL Wheel Count' Military Estimate Missed the Mark [Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club]

Military "Using 12-Axle TEL" Analysis
North Korea's Released Photos Show TEL Wheels with 11 Axles

North Korea conducted a test launch of its latest intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the Hwasong-19, using an 11-axle transporter erector launcher (TEL). This differs from the previous analysis by our military, which suggested the use of a 12-axle TEL.

On the 1st, the Korean Central News Agency reported that North Korea's Missile General Bureau successfully test-fired the latest ICBM on the morning of the 31st under the guidance of State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un. After Chairman Kim approved the "test launch of the latest strategic weapon" on site, General Jang Chang-ha, head of the Missile General Bureau, issued the launch order to the 2nd Red Flag Battalion.

Photos released show that North Korea launched the Hwasong-19 using an 11-axle TEL. Based on the color and shape of the flames, it is estimated to use solid fuel. The Hwasong-19 is presumed to be an upgraded version of the Hwasong-18, with a range exceeding 15,000 km, capable of striking the entire United States. This ICBM, which flew about 1,000 km, set records for both flight time (86 minutes) and maximum altitude (over 7,000 km). Given the longest flight time and highest altitude, it is interpreted that this ICBM has a longer range than previously launched ICBMs.

Experts evaluated that if launched at a normal angle, it would have the range to strike the entire U.S. mainland, including Los Angeles (LA) on the West Coast as well as Washington D.C. and New York on the East Coast.

Our military's analysis of the TEL was off. Lee Sung-jun, spokesperson for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at a regular briefing the previous day regarding North Korea's ICBM launch, "Our initial assessment is that North Korea may have test-fired a new solid-propellant long-range ballistic missile," adding, "There is a possibility it was launched from the recently revealed 12-axle TEL, and further analysis is underway."

North Korea unveiled a new 12-axle TEL through state media on the 8th of last month. At that time, the Korean Central News Agency reported that Chairman Kim Jong-un inspected the Defense Industry Enterprise under the 2nd Economic Committee and released photos showing Kim placing his right hand on the wheels of the 12-axle TEL.

Among previously revealed TELs, the one with the most wheels was the 11-axle TEL carrying the liquid-fueled Hwasong-17 ICBM. The solid-fueled Hwasong-18 uses a 9-axle TEL. This is because the Hwasong-17 missile is about 23 meters long, slightly longer than the approximately 20-meter Hwasong-18. An increase in the number of TEL wheels indicates either an extension of the missile length to secure longer range or an increase in warhead weight to enhance destructive power.

The military stated that North Korea's intention behind this ICBM launch is "judged as a strategy to increase its negotiating power at a time when the U.S. presidential election is imminent, and it may also be an event to break away from the current situation." The current situation likely refers to international criticism of North Korea's troop dispatch to Russia.