[US Election 2024]
Support Rates Fluctuate Among Polling Agencies
Harris Performs Well in Rust Belt Near Election End
With the U.S. presidential election on November 5 just five days away, Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate former President Donald Trump are showing an extremely close race until the final moments. In the seven key battleground states that hold the key to entering the White House, the leading candidate keeps changing depending on the polling agency, and Vice President Harris is performing well in the Rust Belt, a declining industrial area, maintaining a tight contest, leaving the outcome of the election still uncertain.
According to major foreign media on the 31st (local time), the Atlas-Intel poll conducted from October 25 to 29 showed that former President Trump held a lead in six of the seven battleground states. He led Vice President Harris by 0.9 to 3.5 percentage points in Georgia (Trump 50.9% · Harris 47.5%), Arizona (50.8% · 47.3%), Nevada (48.5% · 47.6%), Wisconsin (49% · 48.5%), Michigan (49.3% · 48.1%), and Pennsylvania (49.6% · 46.9%).
Vice President Harris held a 0.5 percentage point lead over former President Trump (48.4%) only in North Carolina, with 48.9% support, making it the only battleground state where she was ahead.
On the other hand, other poll results show Vice President Harris leading in major battleground states. According to a survey conducted by the University of Massachusetts Lowell from October 16 to 23, Vice President Harris led former President Trump by 1 percentage point in Pennsylvania and 4 percentage points in Michigan. Pennsylvania and Michigan, along with Wisconsin, form the Rust Belt within the battleground states, holding the key to entering the White House. Notably, Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes, is the largest and most fiercely contested battleground state.
CNN poll results also show Vice President Harris gaining momentum. She led former President Trump by 6 percentage points in Wisconsin with 51% support compared to Trump's 45%. In Michigan and North Carolina, she recorded 48% support each, leading Trump (43%, 47%) by 5 and 1 percentage points respectively. In Pennsylvania, both candidates were tied at 48%. In Georgia, former President Trump led Vice President Harris by 1 percentage point with 48% support to her 47%.
Newsweek analyzed, "With the election just days away, Vice President Harris is gaining momentum by leading former President Trump in the final polls in key Rust Belt states," adding, "Both candidates are neck and neck in the seven battleground states, making the competition increasingly intense."
Meanwhile, nationwide polls show many more results where Vice President Harris leads former President Trump. According to a survey conducted by The Economist and polling firm YouGov from October 26 to 29 targeting registered voters and released on the same day, Vice President Harris had 47% support, leading former President Trump’s 46% by 1 percentage point. However, when limited to voters who intend to vote in the presidential election, Harris led with 49% support to Trump’s 46%, a 3 percentage point advantage.
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