Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is highly likely to be re-elected as the next prime minister, according to local media reports. The special Diet session to appoint the next prime minister following the House of Representatives election is expected to convene on the 11th of next month.
According to Kyodo News on the 31st, Kazuya Shinba, secretary-general of the third opposition party, the Democratic Party for the People, conveyed during a meeting with Hiroshi Moriyama, secretary-general of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), that in the prime ministerial election, they plan to vote for Yuichiro Tamaki, leader of the Democratic Party for the People, rather than Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, in both the first and runoff votes.
Additionally, the secretary-generals of the LDP and the Democratic Party for the People agreed to start policy consultations, including comprehensive economic measures to be prepared next month.
Secretary-General Shinba stated that they will "respond to each agenda item" regarding the supplementary budget for fiscal year 2024, the main budget for fiscal year 2025, and tax reforms.
The LDP aims to maintain its administration through a "partial coalition" that incorporates some of the Democratic Party for the People's demands in economic measures.
However, Tamaki pressured the LDP by stating that if they do not address the income tax issues emphasized by the Democratic Party for the People, "cooperation will naturally be impossible, and the budget will not pass."
The Democratic Party for the People is also scheduled to hold talks with the coalition partner Komeito on the 1st of next month. Kyodo News interpreted this as a sign that policy consultations among the LDP, Komeito, and the Democratic Party for the People will proceed.
Hirofumi Yoshimura, co-leader of the second opposition party Nippon Ishin no Kai and governor of Osaka Prefecture, told reporters in Osaka City on the same day, "I think it is wrong to refer to him as Representative Noda."
Nippon Ishin no Kai also expressed its intention not to ally with the Constitutional Democratic Party, increasing the likelihood that Prime Minister Ishiba will be named the next prime minister.
Representative Noda also appeared on a TV program and said, "Realistically, the nomination (for prime minister) is difficult."
In the general election held on the 27th, the LDP (191 seats) and its coalition partner Komeito (24 seats) together failed to secure a majority of 233 seats out of 465 in the House of Representatives.
The Constitutional Democratic Party won 148 seats, while Nippon Ishin no Kai and the Democratic Party for the People secured 38 and 28 seats respectively.
In this prime ministerial election, since no candidate is expected to win a majority in the first round, a runoff vote between Prime Minister Ishiba and Representative Noda is anticipated.
In the runoff vote, any votes cast for candidates other than these two will be invalid. If members of Nippon Ishin no Kai and the Democratic Party for the People, who hold the casting votes, do not vote for Representative Noda, Prime Minister Ishiba will become the winner.
The Asahi Shimbun also predicted, "(The Democratic Party for the People and others) will effectively allow the election of Prime Minister Ishiba, and unless there is a mass defection of LDP lawmakers, Prime Minister Ishiba is highly likely to remain in office."
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