[US Election 2024] Trump’s Presidential Election Rejection Scenario

Possibility of Election Fraud Conspiracy Theories Spreading via SNS
Pressure for Recount and Lawsuits in Electoral Districts

Even if the owner of the White House is decided in November, the fight may not be over. This is especially true if former President Donald Trump loses. To avoid the massive amount of criminal lawsuits and trials awaiting him after the election, former President Trump will try to become president by any means. This is why there are widespread concerns about a repeat of the election refusal and the January 6 Capitol riot that occurred four years ago. What will happen if former President Trump loses?

In the investigation documents submitted last month by Jack Smith, the U.S. federal special prosecutor investigating the "attempt to overturn the 2020 election results," there are records of former President Trump's words and actions aimed at overturning the election results at that time. It was confirmed that he told his daughter Ivanka and her husband on his private plane, "It doesn't matter if we lose or win the election. We have to fight like we're going to hell." This expressed his determination to carry out a refusal campaign regardless of the election outcome. It also appeared that he pressured then-Vice President Mike Pence, who was supposed to certify the election results through a joint session of Congress, to refuse to certify the election results.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Conscious of these actions, American voters seem to be mentally preparing for the possibility of election refusal again this time. According to a nationwide poll conducted by the Pew Research Center from September 30 to October 6, surveying 5,110 adults, nearly 74% of respondents said that former President Trump is likely not to concede even if he loses the election. Also, among Trump supporters, only 32% said it is very important to recognize the opposing candidate as the legitimate U.S. president even if their preferred candidate loses, which is about half the level of Vice President Harris supporters (61%).

According to a summary by the U.S. political media outlet Politico, political and election experts largely see two possible actions former President Trump might take if his chances of losing this election become clear. The first is spreading misinformation to sow distrust. Similar to the 2020 election, he might spread suspicions that the Democratic Party illegally registered thousands of foreigners as voters to vote for the Democratic candidate or that postal authorities are manipulating the counting of mail-in ballots. Trump's social media platform Truth Social, as well as Elon Musk's X (formerly Twitter), which has 200 million followers and strongly supports him, could be powerful tools to amplify such suspicions.

Under-the-radar efforts are already underway. According to The New York Times (NYT), there have been about 90 lawsuits filed by Republican groups across the U.S. this year concerning election rules and practices, including voter list management, mail-in ballot submission deadlines, and absentee voting. This is three times the number of lawsuits filed during the 2020 election cycle. The NYT analyzed this by saying, "Considering the scale and timing of the lawsuits, it suggests a bigger goal is hidden," and "It aims to exclude potential voters likely to vote for Democrats and to establish a legal basis to challenge the election results later."

[Image source=Pixabay]

If the first strategy fails, the next step could be a 'stalling' operation. This involves pressuring state and county election boards not to certify election results or filing lawsuits in districts with narrow margins to demand recounts. The Washington Post (WP) noted, "Some battleground states like Pennsylvania and Arizona take longer to count votes than others, so it could take weeks to declare a winner," and "While waiting for results, such fake news can spread rapidly and incite the public."

If the stalling operation succeeds, its impact is expected to be significant. According to U.S. federal law, each state must certify election results by December 11, and the certified results are sent to Congress by the state electors' meeting six days later on the 17th. When the new session of Congress begins on January 3 of the following year, Congress elects a speaker and then officially confirms the election results at the joint session of the House and Senate on the 6th. The problem is that recounts and lawsuits could delay this entire election certification process. The WP emphasized, "If a speaker is not elected by January 6, Congress will enter uncharted territory," and "Especially in the House, without a speaker, almost all functions are paralyzed."