80% of US Voters Say "Economic Situation Will Influence Their Vote"
With the U.S. presidential election just a week away, various economic indicators suggest that the chances of Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate from the current ruling party, winning have increased, according to foreign media analysis.
A significant number of Americans have been considering the economic situation as an important voting factor until the final stages of this election, due to tight household finances caused by the sharp rise in prices following COVID-19.
On the 30th (local time), MarketWatch cited a research model from Moody's Analytics, a subsidiary of the international credit rating agency Moody's, reporting, "According to economic indicators, Harris appears to have a winning chance compared to Trump in this election," adding, "The probability of Harris winning this election has risen to 55.5%."
Justin Begley, an economist at Moody's Analytics, stated, "Recent simulation results with clients show that significantly lower mortgage rates and gasoline prices since last year have increased Harris's chances of winning as the candidate of the current ruling party."
The 30-year mortgage rate announced by the U.S. Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) on the same day was 6.73%, more than 1 percentage point lower than the peak of 7.90% in the same month last year. According to CFDs, the futures price of gasoline was $1.9687 per gallon, about 30% lower than the peak in April last year ($2.8029 per gallon).
U.S. household income has also increased. MarketWatch explained, "If household income rises, the likelihood of Harris's victory is also likely to increase."
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. personal income in the second quarter of this year increased by 5.3% compared to the same period last year, and although it slightly slowed to 3.1% in the third quarter, it still exceeds the 10-year average growth rate of 2.9%.
MarketWatch also analyzed that the improvement in the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is raising Vice President Harris's chances of winning.
The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for October, released by the Conference Board on the 29th, was 108.7, a sharp increase of 9.5 points from the previous month. This is the highest figure in nine months since January (110.9) and the largest increase since March 2021.
MarketWatch added that another research model based on economic data also showed an increase in Vice President Harris's chances of winning this election.
According to this model conducted by Yale University economics professor Ray Fair, Vice President Harris is expected to receive 49.47% of the vote in this election, a slight increase from 49.28% in July.
Meanwhile, a poll released last month by the Pew Research Center showed that 81% of U.S. voters consider the economic situation a decisive factor in this election.
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