'Deployment to North Korea' Puts Korean Peninsula Between US and Russia Again
Hong Wan-seok: "We Must Protect National Interests Through Balanced Diplomacy"
Park Won-gon: "Draw Red Lines and Respond Step by Step"
The deployment of North Korean troops is expected to cause a tectonic shift in the diplomatic and security landscape of the Korean Peninsula. A situation where the South and North are aligned with the United States and Russia, respectively, facing off against each other, has been reproduced in Europe. The government has even hinted at providing lethal weapons support to Ukraine. Choe Son-hui, North Korea's Foreign Minister, has embarked on an official visit to Russia. The security dynamics in Northeast Asia are rapidly changing. There are calls for a meticulous diplomatic strategy to ensure it does not conflict with national interests.
'Northeast Asian Cold War' Reproduced in Europe: "We Must Restore Balance"
Hong Wan-seok, a professor at the Graduate School of International and Area Studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, reviewed the pro-Russia policies of past conservative administrations and emphasized the importance of 'balanced diplomacy.' There is concern that our security could become more heavily dependent on the United States as a result of this situation.
When the Crimean Peninsula was annexed, which is considered the starting point of the Ukraine war, the United States imposed strong sanctions on Russia, but the Park Geun-hye administration refused to join. Earlier, under the Roh Tae-woo administration, despite strengthening the South Korea-U.S. alliance, South Korea expanded its diplomatic standing by establishing diplomatic relations with the former Soviet Union.
Professor Hong said, "While policy coordination with our blood ally, the United States, is necessary, we must recognize that as our national power has increased, the interests of the U.S. and South Korea have diverged. In the past, as a weak country, we relied on the U.S., but now, as a global player, we must prioritize protecting our national interests."
He also pointed out that South Korea and Ukraine share few practical interests. He said, "Looking back at the Korean War, it is natural for us to support Ukraine to some extent," but added, "Russia has historically been deeply involved in the security of the Korean Peninsula." Professor Hong recalled former Foreign Minister Song Min-soon's remark that "the web woven by values cannot bear the weight of national interests," warning, "We must not touch Russia's vital interests, a key stakeholder in the Korean Peninsula, under the pretext of value diplomacy."
Utilizing Russia's Interests: "Preparing Step-by-Step Scenarios"
While 'balance' is important, the fact that North Korea is experiencing modern warfare itself poses a threat to the Korean Peninsula. Above all, the possibility that North Korea could acquire advanced military technology from Russia has significant implications. There are concerns that if the government provides lethal weapons to Ukraine as a countermeasure, a de facto 'proxy war between the South and North' could unfold.
Park Won-gon, a professor in the Department of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University, said, "The level of cooperation between North Korea and Russia has reached the highest level, where they are willing to shed blood for each other," advising the government to clearly establish a 'red line.' He emphasized the need to prepare step-by-step response scenarios depending on Russia's actions, such as weapons provision and technological support.
Professor Park stressed, "We must prepare for the possibility that Russia might provide air defense missiles like the S-300 or nuclear technology in exchange for North Korea dispatching troops." The government's response level should vary depending on whether Russia supplies defensive or offensive weapons.
However, from this perspective, Professor Park's analysis suggests that lethal weapons support to Ukraine is not an 'imminent option.' He said, "The basic policy is not to provide lethal weapons, but if Russia crosses the line, that option could be considered, meaning Russia should refrain from actions that threaten South Korea."
Professor Park urged leveraging Russia's 'mid- to long-term interests.' He noted that Russia, estranged from Europe, only has the 'East' left. He said, "In post-war reconstruction, the only contribution North Korea can make is providing labor," and added, "We must keep open the fact that South Korea is a key partner in Putin's New Eastern Policy."
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