[US Election 2024] D-7 Poll Averages Show... Still a Neck-and-Neck Race Within 1%P

With the US presidential election on November 5 just a week away, major polls still show a fierce contest within a 1 percentage point margin. In nationwide surveys, Democratic vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris holds a slight lead, while in key battleground states, Republican former President Donald Trump is confirmed to have a narrow advantage. However, these leads are also within 1 percentage point, indicating that there is no candidate with a substantial edge. In Pennsylvania, the largest battleground state often called the "battleground of battlegrounds," the race is tied at 48% to 48%. Ultimately, it is expected that a small number of 'shy' voters will determine the outcome. Some even predict that due to the razor-thin race, the winner may not be confirmed even the day after this year’s election.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Polls Show Tight Race: "No Candidate Holds a Substantial Lead"

According to the average of polls updated early on October 29 (local time) by The Hill, a congressional news outlet, Vice President Harris’s support stands at 48.6%, slightly ahead of former President Trump’s 47.9%. This result is based on an aggregation of 302 recent polls, with a margin of error of only 0.7 percentage points, leading to assessments that the election outcome is too close to call.

Specifically, the most recent TIPP Insight poll (October 26?28) showed both candidates tied at 48%. The same poll the previous day showed similar results. In the YouGov-CBS poll conducted from October 24 to 26, Vice President Harris led former President Trump by 1 percentage point, 50% to 49%. Around the same time, the Democracy Institute poll (October 23?25) showed Trump leading Harris by 3 percentage points, 50% to 47%.

Vice President Harris had maintained a strong upward trend since President Joe Biden withdrew from the race in July, but her support has plateaued this month. Meanwhile, former President Trump’s support has been rising again recently. As a result, the gap that had widened to around 4 percentage points at the end of September has narrowed once more. The Hill emphasized that Trump holds a favorable position as the race nears its conclusion.

In the poll averages updated early that day by The New York Times (NYT), Vice President Harris’s support was 49%, while former President Trump’s was 48%, indicating a tight race. The NYT noted, "With one week left until the election, Harris’s lead in national polls has begun to narrow," but also stated, "Key battleground states remain fiercely contested. No candidate holds a substantial lead in seven battleground states."

Looking at the battleground state polls compiled by the NYT, former President Trump holds a 1 percentage point lead in North Carolina and Georgia, and a 2 percentage point lead in Arizona. Vice President Harris leads by 1 percentage point in Michigan. Pennsylvania, which holds 19 electoral votes and is considered a "must-win" state, is tied at 48% each. Nevada and Wisconsin also show a dead heat. Poll averages compiled by the election analysis site FiveThirtyEight (538) similarly show Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin as evenly contested. Trump’s leads in Pennsylvania and Nevada are only 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, while Wisconsin is tied.

The seven battleground states have the following electoral vote counts: Pennsylvania 19, North Carolina 16, Georgia 16, Michigan 15, Arizona 11, Wisconsin 10, and Nevada 6. The US presidential election requires a candidate to secure at least 270 of the 538 electoral votes to win, and these seven battleground states collectively hold 93 electoral votes.

The Key Factor: Shy Trump and Shy Harris... Will Polls Match Election Results?

Local media conclude that the votes of the so-called 'shy Trump' and 'shy Harris' voters will ultimately decide this year’s election outcome. This was a factor missed by polls in the 2016 election. At that time, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton won the popular vote nationwide but lost the electoral college to Republican candidate Trump. Concerns have recently been raised about Democratic base voters, including Black and Latino communities, drifting away from Vice President Harris. Attention is focused on whether the so-called 'shy Trump' will sweep even Democratic strongholds like the Blue Wall, or whether the so-called 'Red Mirage' (Republican mirage) will be confirmed in early voting.

The NYT previously noted that polls underestimated Republican candidate Trump in the 2016 and 2020 elections, while underestimating Democratic candidate Barack Obama in 2012. According to local media, nationwide polls in US presidential elections since 1988 have had an average margin of error of 2.3 percentage points. In the seven battleground states that decide the outcome, the average margin of error since 2000 has been 3.1 percentage points. Harry Enten, a political data journalist at CNN, explained, "Since 1972, the average polling error in major battleground states has been 3.4 percentage points."

In the 2020 election, President Joe Biden defeated former President Trump, but the actual margin was much narrower than poll-based predictions. According to 538’s analysis just before the election, Biden led nationally by 8.4 percentage points, but the final result was a 4.5 percentage point victory. Considering that Democrats generally have an advantage in the popular vote, this was seen as a narrow margin sufficient to barely win the electoral college. Shortly after, the American Association for Public Opinion Research released a report stating that Biden’s support was overestimated by 3.9 percentage points in polls. However, experts add that given changes in polling methodologies since then, it remains difficult to predict this election’s outcome based on polls.

When Will the Election Results Be Confirmed?

There are also predictions that the confirmation of the election winner may be delayed longer than expected due to the razor-thin race. According to the Associated Press, in the 2012 election, victory declarations were reported after 11:30 PM Eastern Time on election night. In 2016, the winner was declared in the early hours of the following day, and in 2020, it was only possible on the morning of November 7, four days later. Since each state has different methods for counting mail-in ballots, it is expected that this year’s razor-thin race will make it difficult to quickly determine the winner. In particular, Pennsylvania, the largest battleground state, automatically conducts a full recount if the vote margin between the winner and loser is within 0.5 percentage points.