"Feeling Like a Dam About to Break"... Red Light on President Yoon's Approval Rating

Gallup Approval Rating Hits 20%
Core Support Shaken
High 'Very Poor' Ratings...Limited Impact Even If Reversal Occurs

President Yoon Suk-yeol's approval rating for his administration is facing the risk of plummeting into the 10% range. Experts have expressed concerns, saying it feels like "a dam is about to break."

According to a recent regular Gallup poll released on the 25th (conducted from the 22nd to 24th nationwide among 1,001 adults aged 18 and over via wireless phone virtual numbers with interviewer calls, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, and a response rate of 12.4%), President Yoon's positive job performance rating dropped 2 percentage points from the previous week to 20%. During the same period, the negative rating rose by 1 percentage point to 70%. Previously, President Yoon's positive job performance rating hit a record low of 20% in the second week of September.

Notably, when looking at demographic groups such as region and age, there is no population group that gave more positive than negative evaluations. The support rate in Daegu-Gyeongbuk, which had served as a stronghold, was only 26%, and Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam was 27%. Among age groups, those in their 60s were at 31%, and those aged 70 and above were at 41%. Only those who identified as supporters of the People Power Party responded with 48%, higher than the 40% negative rating. However, this figure also fell by 8 percentage points from the previous survey (56%).

Experts view this trend in approval ratings as a dangerous level. Lee Taek-soo, CEO of Realmeter, said on MBC Radio's "News High Kick," "Since the reports related to Myung Tae-gyun started, the ratings have been dropping continuously in a salami-slicing manner," adding, "It feels like a dam is about to break." He introduced that during the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye, "the approval rating maintained 25%, suddenly dropped to 17%, and then immediately fell to 5%."

Yoon Hee-woong, CEO of Opinions, also said on the same radio program, "In the case of presidential approval ratings, there is usually a last stronghold or support base that holds on until the end," but "currently, there is actually no support base." Yoon mentioned that Gallup offers choices such as 'doing well' and 'not doing well,' but in polls with five-point scales divided into 'very well' and 'generally well,' the proportion of 'very poorly' is high, saying, "Even if the situation turns around, the effect of reversal will inevitably be quite limited."

Among those who evaluated President Yoon's job performance positively (199 respondents), diplomacy (27%) was cited as the biggest reason. Conversely, among those who evaluated negatively (698 respondents), issues related to First Lady Kim Keon-hee (15%), economy/livelihood/prices (14%), and poor communication (12%) were mentioned. Concerns have also been raised about the public criticism focusing on the First Lady Kim's issues. Lee said, "Among People Power Party supporters, until before the general election, there was a tendency to refrain from criticizing the president or his wife, but after the election, even conservative groups, People Power Party supporters, and People Power Party officials have shown criticism." Yoon also mentioned that the First Lady's issues were cited as a cause of negative evaluations more than livelihood issues, saying, "Livelihood issues are usually the highest cause of negative evaluations, but this issue has fallen behind," and "People are viewing the president's evaluation through the lens of issues related to the First Lady."

According to the National Barometer Survey (NBS) released on the 24th by Embrain Public, K-stat Research, Korea Research, and Hankook Research (conducted from the 21st to 23rd nationwide among 1,000 men and women aged 18 and over via mobile phone interviews, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, and a response rate of 14.1%), the approval rating was 22%, marking the lowest level since inauguration.

A presidential office official told reporters on the day of the poll release, "Under a serious situation awareness, we will listen more closely to the voices of the people," adding, "We will do our best every day to fill in the shortcomings." The official also said, "Regarding measures related to the First Lady, President Yoon has sufficiently discussed them in a meeting with People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon, and if there are additional discussions or reviews, we will inform you at the next opportunity."

For detailed information, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission and the Korea Gallup website.