[US Election 2024] Harris or Trump... The Decisive Moment with Ten Days Left

Will the United States see its first female president, or will 'Trumpism,' centered on America First, make a comeback? With just ten days left until the November 5 U.S. presidential election, it is widely regarded as a pivotal turning point in American history, regardless of who wins. The world’s attention is focused on whether Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris or Republican candidate former President Donald Trump, who are locked in an extremely close race in major polls, will become the next U.S. president.

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Neck-and-neck until the end... Looking at the magic number 270 scenarios

The U.S. presidential election is decided not by the total popular vote but by the number of electoral votes secured based on each state's election results. Out of a total of 538 electors, a candidate must secure a majority of 270 to win. The 93 electoral votes from seven so-called "swing states"?states without a clear partisan majority?play a decisive role in the election outcome. Local media’s win-loss scenario forecasts depend on how these swing states’ electoral votes are divided. This is why Vice President Harris and former President Trump are focusing their campaigns intensively on these battleground states in the final stretch.

Especially this year, the election has been characterized by an extremely close race, with the two candidates’ support rates fluctuating within the margin of error in major polls. CNN noted that this is the first presidential election in 60 years where no candidate leads by more than 5 percentage points.

This tight race is clearly evident even within the swing states. Depending on which organization conducted the poll and when, results can differ even within the same state. For example, in Pennsylvania, considered the "swing state of swing states," a recent Emerson University poll showed former President Trump leading with 49% support, 1 percentage point ahead, while a Bloomberg News poll released the same day showed Vice President Harris leading with 50%, a 1.8 percentage point advantage. This underscores how difficult it is to predict the outcome until the very end. Ultimately, this suggests that the election result is likely to be decided by a small number of undecided voters.

Local media, including the congressional-focused outlet The Hill, suggest that the easiest path for Vice President Harris to victory is to win the three Midwestern "Blue Wall" states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The Blue Wall refers to 18 states that the Democratic Party won consecutively from 1992 to 2012. Even if Harris loses in the Sun Belt battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, if she defeats former President Trump in these Blue Wall states along with other states won by President Joe Biden, she can secure exactly the magic number of 270 electoral votes. In this scenario, former President Trump would secure 268 votes.

This means that losing Pennsylvania, which has the largest number of electoral votes among the swing states, could be a significant blow. Conversely, for former President Trump, winning Pennsylvania would reduce the burden of securing electoral votes in other states. He could reach the magic number of 270 by winning just Georgia and North Carolina among the four Sun Belt battleground states. These Sun Belt battlegrounds typically have strong Republican support, and polls have shown Trump holding a slight edge in these areas. Even if he loses Pennsylvania, winning North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and one other Rust Belt battleground state would allow Trump to reach 270 electoral votes.

There is also a scenario, similar to the 2016 election, where the Democratic candidate wins the nationwide popular vote but loses in the electoral college. This is part of the reason why Vice President Harris has recently launched a large-scale campaign featuring high-profile supporters ranging from former President Barack Obama to pop star Beyonc?. The aggressive attacks likening former President Trump to Hitler and branding him a fascist are also part of this strategy. These moves are aimed at undecided voters and conservative voters who distrust Trump, targeting them actively until the final moments of the election.

If Harris wins, the first female president; if Trump wins, Trumpism strengthens

If Vice President Harris wins this election, she will make history as the first female president of the United States, a milestone that former Secretary of State and 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton was unable to achieve due to her loss to former President Trump. Harris would also be the first Black and Asian American female president. Born in California in 1964 to a Jamaican immigrant father of African descent and an Indian immigrant mother, Vice President Harris is racially classified as both Black and Asian American.

In terms of policy, she is expected to largely continue the Biden administration’s agenda. This includes economic policies centered on an "opportunity economy" aimed at strengthening the American middle class, federal legalization of abortion, student loan forgiveness, and increased taxes on the wealthy. On foreign policy, the emphasis on alliances is also expected to continue. However, Vice President Harris has publicly distanced herself from concerns that her presidency would simply be a continuation of the Biden administration. She has highlighted that most of her career as a prosecutor was based outside Washington, D.C., and emphasized that she would consider opinions from Republicans and the business community if she assumes power.

On the other hand, if former President Trump wins and launches a second term, it is expected that "Trumpism," which was not fully realized during his first term, will be strengthened. Trump has already signaled a reinforcement of protectionism, characterized by high tariffs and reshoring of manufacturing. The New York Times (NYT) recently reported that if Trump wins, the next administration will be centered around the right-wing think tank America First Policy Institute (AFPI), and that nearly 300 draft executive orders have already been prepared in anticipation of his return to power. The report described these as "thinner than the Project 2025 policy book but containing stronger Trumpism," citing examples such as mandatory ultrasounds before abortion including drug use, expanded oil production, withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, imposing work requirements on Medicare beneficiaries, and legally recognizing only two genders.

Of course, there are policy overlaps between the two candidates. Protectionism is an unstoppable trend regardless of who wins. Anti-China sentiment is also expected to continue. Former President Trump has promised to impose ultra-high tariffs on China if re-elected, and even if Vice President Harris takes office, the Biden administration’s stance on countering China in advanced technology sectors is likely to persist. The movement to counter China in order to maintain technological supremacy is expected to intensify, as it is perceived as directly linked to national security and hegemony.