[Choi Junyoung's World+] North Korean Troop Deployment and the Future of the Korean Peninsula

Russia Faces Infantry Shortage Amid Prolonged War
North Korea Sends 10,000 Troops Under Strategic Partnership Treaty
Deployment Could Mark Major Shift on Battlefield
Russia Expected to Offer Energy, Food, and More in Return
North Korea Gains Military Modernization and Combat Experience
Concerns Rise Over Possible Russian Intervention in Korean Peninsula Crisis
Old Inter-Korean Reconciliation Strategies Have Reached Their Limit

Choi Jun-young, Senior Advisor at Law Firm Yulchon (Global Legal Affairs and Policy)

The deployment of North Korean troops to Ukraine is shaking the world. When the Ukrainian newspaper Kyiv Independent reported on the 15th, citing a Ukrainian intelligence official, that 3,000 North Korean soldiers would soon be deployed to the Ukrainian front, many thought it was just one of the various "rumors" that could come from a country at war. Even when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested the possibility of deploying 10,000 North Korean troops at the European Union (EU) summit held in Brussels, Belgium, on the 17th, it was seen as part of a strategy to appeal for more support.

However, the situation changed on the 18th when South Korea’s National Intelligence Service revealed that 1,500 North Korean troops had already moved to Russia using Russian landing ships and were undergoing acclimatization training, and that North Korea and Russia had agreed to deploy a total of 12,000 troops, equivalent to four brigades. Soon after, videos showing North Korean soldiers receiving supplies and training camps filmed in Russia were released online, and even a Korean-language survey form for clothing provision appeared on CNN, making the deployment of North Korean troops to Ukraine increasingly a fait accompli. Of course, the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) still maintain a cautious stance. They acknowledge the troop deployment itself but are reportedly verifying whether these troops will actually be deployed as combat forces.

Amid the recent rapid developments such as North Korea’s two-state theory claims, constitutional amendments, the demolition of roads and bridges in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), and the discovery of drones over Pyongyang, curiosity is growing about why North Korea decided to deploy troops at this moment. North Korea’s assistance to Russia by deploying troops is based on the "Treaty on the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between North Korea and Russia" signed at the North Korea-Russia summit in June. Article 4 of the treaty stipulates that if one party is subjected to armed invasion and enters a state of war, the other party may provide assistance. Since Russia has consistently emphasized that its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was a "special military operation" rather than a war, Russia was not officially in a state of war.

However, since August, when Ukrainian forces launched a surprise invasion and occupied the Kursk region of mainland Russia, Russia has been under invasion and in a state of war, so North Korea’s troop deployment can be seen as an act in accordance with the treaty. North Korea’s deployment can be examined from various perspectives, including strengthening regime security through elevated security relations with Russia and gaining economic benefits through personnel dispatch. It is important to keep in mind that North Korea has a history of dispatching small military advisory groups to the Middle East and Africa in the past. Overseas troop deployment is not unfamiliar to North Korea.

On the 18th (local time), the Ukrainian Military Strategic Communication and Information Security Center (SPRAVDI) released a video showing soldiers, presumed to be North Korean troops, lining up to receive Russian supplies. Photo by Yonhap News

Russia continues its offensive on the eastern front of Ukraine but is facing many difficulties due to a shortage of troops. With extensive reconnaissance and attacks conducted via drones, both Russia and Ukraine find it difficult to mobilize large-scale forces, making infiltration and attacks by small infantry units the most effective means. However, as well-trained infantry are depleted through the prolonged war, the expansion of victories is progressing very slowly. Around May, the Russian military requested President Putin to issue an additional mobilization order, but President Putin refused, citing the risk of losing public support. In this situation, the addition of 12,000 North Korean light infantry troops from special forces brigades would be a significant help to Russia. Although it is currently unknown whether North Korean troops will be deployed directly to the front lines facing Ukrainian forces or to mop up Ukrainian troops who have invaded Russia, it is clear that they would be a great help to the exhausted Russian forces.

It is not known whether North Korea’s deployment was at Russia’s request or if Russia agreed to North Korea’s proposal, but it is clear that the relationship between the two sides will be elevated to a different level than before. It is also unknown what Russia will provide in return for the deployment, but even if only energy and food support, which have been difficult for North Korea, are provided, it would be a great help to North Korea. Given that North Korea is reportedly facing increasing economic difficulties due to recent large-scale floods and deteriorating relations with China, Russian support would be like a godsend.

From our perspective, the strengthening of cooperation between North Korea and Russia could bring significant changes to the security environment on the Korean Peninsula, as Russia, along with China, could intervene by supporting North Korea in an emergency. Opinions differ on the actual role North Korean troops will play, but it is clear that North Korea now has an opportunity to improve combat capabilities by modernizing its military with Russian support and establishing doctrines suitable for future warfare through real combat experience. For us, who face the task of reorganizing the existing heavy and large-scale weapon systems built through massive investment into systems suitable for future warfare, the accumulation of real combat experience by North Korea will make the challenges even more complex.

North Korea’s troop deployment symbolizes that the changes in the environment surrounding the Korean Peninsula, which have been underway since the late 1980s, are entering a new phase. The situation around the Korean Peninsula is becoming increasingly complex, including conflicts surrounding Taiwan. Focusing only on the Korean Peninsula risks becoming insensitive to changes and misjudging the situation. We must acknowledge that the vision and strategy of reconciliation, cooperation, tension reduction, and unification, which could operate in the post-Cold War order, have now expired. The international order, influenced by the changing positions of major powers represented by the US-China conflict, demands that we adopt new perspectives and attitudes, yet we remain fixated on the excitement of the inter-Korean summits from 20 years ago. While we must strive to maintain peace, we must keep in mind that the methods and means may change with the times. Much will change depending on what and how we prepare.

Choi Jun-young, Specialist at Yulchon LLC (Global Law & Policy)