'North Korea Troop Deployment' Announced by NIS... Why Does the US Say 'If True'?

Fourth Day Since NIS Announcement... US Still Withholds Confirmation
Level of War Involvement Likely to Change If 'Judgment' Made
Park Wongon "Providing Weapons and Troop Deployment Are Different Issues"

It has been four days since the government announced that North Korea deployed special forces to the Russian battlefield. However, Western countries are withholding 'official confirmation.' It is interpreted that they are approaching the matter cautiously as their responses vary. South Korea is also expected to face pressure to support lethal weapons for Ukraine.

John Kirby, White House National Security Council (NSC) National Security Communications Coordinator, stated on the 21st (local time), "If North Korean troops' participation is 'true,' it is certainly a dangerous and concerning situation." As when U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin expressed concern two days earlier, he still conditions his statement with "if true."

The National Intelligence Service announced on the 18th that it has confirmed the commencement of North Korean troops' participation in the Ukraine war. The photo is a satellite image taken on the 16th of a military facility located in Ussuriysk, Primorsky Krai, Russia. Through analysis, the National Intelligence Service estimated that about 400 North Korean personnel gathered in the parade ground shown in the photo. [Photo by National Intelligence Service]

The National Intelligence Service (NIS) confirmed North Korean troops' participation on the 18th. The NIS detected about 1,500 North Korean special forces moving from near Chongjin and Hamhung to Vladivostok aboard a Russian naval transport ship between the 8th and 13th of this month. Using artificial intelligence (AI) facial recognition technology, they even identified a specific soldier as a missile technician and detailed that they were disguised with fake IDs.

It is very unusual for the NIS to disclose such 'intelligence' first. Before this announcement, President Yoon Suk-yeol held an emergency security meeting attended by key officials from the National Security Office, Ministry of National Defense, and NIS. Immediately after the meeting, the presidential office stated, "We will respond using all available means," and soon after, evidence of North Korean troop deployment was revealed. This could be a sophisticated psychological operation aimed at pressuring North Korea and Russia.

However, despite the South Korean government's confidence, Western countries including the U.S. are withholding 'confirmation.' The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) expressed concern but stated it cannot 'confirm' the deployment of North Korean troops. The United Nations (UN) is also cautious. Farhan Haq, Deputy Spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General, said regarding reports of North Korean troop deployment, "There is no official confirmation yet," and only gave a general statement that violations of sanctions are matters for the Security Council to decide.

President Yoon Suk-yeol is delivering a speech at the Indo-Pacific session of the NATO Public Forum held in Washington DC, USA, in July this year. [Image source=Yonhap News]

The reason the U.S. and the West are conservative about 'confirmation' is because changes in response measures are inevitable. Although the deployed North Korean soldiers are unlikely to change the course of the war, from the perspective of the U.S. or NATO, the level of involvement in the war could change entirely. The U.S. also has to consider the presidential election less than two weeks away.

Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University, said, "From the perspective of the U.S. or NATO, providing weapons and sending combat troops for 'direct participation' are completely different matters," adding, "The U.S. likely has intelligence, but since third-party involvement in the war is a very serious issue, they want to confirm it precisely."

When the U.S. and NATO make their decisions, pressure on the South Korean government to support lethal weapons for Ukraine is expected to increase. The military authorities are keeping all 'overall possibilities' open and reviewing necessary measures. Support for 155mm artillery shells and dispatching tactical troops, which had been restrained so far, are being discussed.

A government official said, "If Russia transfers key military technologies following the deployment of North Korean troops, it can be considered crossing a 'red line,'" adding, "It is necessary to review the level of Russia-North Korea military cooperation."