5th Explosion Show... Possible Provocation Near North Korea NLL [Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club]

Explosion of Gyeongui Line and Donghae Line Roads... Analysis of 'Jeong Se-ju Forgery'
Related Measures May Continue at Sea as Well

North Korea has once again chosen a 'demolition show.' Analysts view North Korea's demolition of the Gyeongui Line and Donghae Line roads on the 15th as a performance aimed at taking control of the situation on the Korean Peninsula. This demolition show is the fifth of its kind so far.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

North Korea's first demolition show took place in 2008. To demonstrate its denuclearization intentions, it blew up the cooling tower of the Yongbyon reactor. On June 27, 2008, at 5:05 p.m., the reactor cooling tower in Yongbyon County, Pyonganbuk-do, North Korea, was demolished within 1 to 2 seconds, leaving no trace. The destruction of this cooling tower, considered a symbol of North Korea's nuclear tests, was broadcast live worldwide, raising hopes for the dismantlement of North Korea's nuclear program.

The United States offered the carrot of removing North Korea from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, but when this was delayed, North Korea responded in August 2008 by halting the disablement of the Yongbyon nuclear facility. The U.S. removed North Korea from the terrorism list in October, and North Korea resumed disablement work. However, both sides later clashed over issues such as the suspension of heavy fuel oil support and spent fuel reprocessing.

After the 2008 Reactor Cooling Tower Demolition, Nuclear Tests Resumed

The verification of North Korea's nuclear program returned to square one by the end of the same year. The Six-Party Talks collapsed over disagreements on the timing and methods of additional verification. In 2009, North Korea expelled International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors from the Yongbyon nuclear facility, began restoring equipment, and forcibly reprocessed spent fuel rods to extract plutonium, the raw material for nuclear weapons. Ultimately, North Korea conducted its second nuclear test on May 2009. Later, in 2013, it announced the reactivation of all nuclear facilities and reactors in Yongbyon, restoring nuclear operations to their original state.

The demolition shows continued regarding nuclear test sites. After launching the Hwasong-15 (ICBM) on November 29, 2017, North Korea declared the completion of its nuclear force and stated that no further nuclear tests were necessary, dismantling the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in Kilju County, Hamgyongbuk-do. This move was emphasized as part of the international community's nuclear disarmament efforts. However, North Korea did not change. Currently, there is speculation that North Korea's seventh nuclear test could occur around the U.S. presidential election, with the time from decision to execution expected to be very short. Ultimately, North Korea has achieved what it desired.

GP Demolition Under Military Agreement but Deceptive

In accordance with the September 19, 2018 inter-Korean military agreement, North Korea announced it would withdraw its forward guard posts (GPs) and demolished 10 such sites. There are claims that during the Moon Jae-in administration, on-site verification was conducted to confirm the withdrawal of GPs but did not check whether key underground facilities were destroyed, yet announced that North Korean GP facilities were militarily disabled. It is said that only the above-ground posts were demolished while underground facilities remained intact.

North Korea's demolition show demonstrating its intent to sever inter-Korean ties also occurred in 2020. It unilaterally demolished the inter-Korean joint liaison office in the Kaesong Industrial Complex. At that time, North Korea cited the distribution of leaflets by defectors as the reason for the demolition. The day after the demolition, North Korea announced its 'next phase of anti-enemy military action plans,' warning of redeploying military units to the Kumgangsan tourism zone, Kaesong Industrial Complex, and guard posts (GPs) within the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), as well as resuming military exercises in the West Sea.

Emphasizing the Border Line, Possibility of Maritime Provocations Following Land Actions

In this context, there is speculation that after the demolition of the Gyeongui Line and Donghae Line roads, North Korea may continue related measures at sea following land actions. Previously, North Korea declared it could not recognize the Northern Limit Line (NLL) and held the Supreme People's Assembly (equivalent to our National Assembly) on the 7th, where it was expected to amend the constitution to establish a 'border line.' However, contrary to expectations, North Korean media did not report on this. While it is not yet confirmed whether a border line clause was added, considering North Korea's recent moves, there is an assessment that maritime provocations are possible.

Meanwhile, North Korea did not notify either domestic or international audiences about the demolition of the inter-Korean connecting roads of the Gyeongui Line and Donghae Line. This contrasts sharply with the relatively prompt reporting by the Korean Central News Agency on the day and the Rodong Sinmun the following day when North Korea demolished the inter-Korean joint liaison office in the Kaesong Industrial Complex on June 16, 2020.

A government official said, "The disconnection work of the Gyeongui Line and Donghae Line has been underway since the end of last year, and since North Korea had already announced earlier this month that it would sever the inter-Korean connecting roads and railways, they may not have felt the need to announce the results explicitly."