[Global Focus] Israel-Iran Retaliation... Growing Fear of Nuclear Armament

Iran Launches 200 Ballistic Missiles
Israel Vows Retaliation

Iran Increasing Uranium Enrichment to 60% Raises Nuclear Weapon Development Concerns

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Israel is preparing to retaliate soon against Iran, with which it has been engaged in a shadow war for decades. Following the Palestinian armed faction Hamas, Lebanese Hezbollah, and Yemeni Houthi rebels supported by Iran, Israel may enter a ‘four-front war’ including Iran itself. There are growing international concerns that Iran, which is stockpiling highly enriched uranium, might proceed with nuclear armament triggered by Israeli airstrikes.

Israel’s Warning of Retaliation Against Iran…Possible Strike Scenarios

Israel declared a counter-retaliation after Iran launched about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel earlier this month in response to the deaths of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. On the 10th, Yoav Gallant, Israel’s Minister of Defense, visited Unit 9900 under the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate and said, “Iran’s airstrikes were aggressive but inaccurate,” adding, “(Israel’s response) will be lethal, precise, and above all, surprising.”

Foreign media foresee that Israel might target Iran’s energy facilities such as oil refineries and nuclear sites. Iran has warned that if Israel retaliates, it will strike targets beyond military facilities. On the 13th, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on X (formerly Twitter), “There is no ‘red line’ in defending the Iranian people and national interests,” indicating preparedness for the possibility of war. Iran also warned that if Middle Eastern U.S.-friendly countries such as Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar allow Israeli attacks on Iran to use their airspace, Iran would retaliate.

U.S. President Joe Biden, with less than a month until the presidential election, is urging Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to exercise maximum restraint. However, since Netanyahu has appeared to disregard Biden’s requests regarding Middle East policy since the outbreak of the Hamas war in October last year, there is an assessment that Netanyahu might make unilateral decisions in the Iran retaliation scenario as well. Moreover, former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, recently made remarks encouraging Netanyahu’s Middle East operations, further escalating tensions in the region.

Likely Impact on Global Affairs…Will Iran Accelerate Nuclear Weapons Development?

If Israel strikes Iran’s energy and nuclear facilities, it could significantly affect not only the Middle East but also global affairs. As of last month, Iran’s oil exports were about 2 million barrels per day, accounting for roughly 2% of the world’s oil supply. Despite U.S. export sanctions on Iranian oil, foreign media believe Iranian oil plays a significant role in stabilizing global crude prices. If Israel attacks Iran’s energy facilities before the U.S. election, oil prices could surge, potentially lowering the approval ratings of Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate. Additionally, The New York Times (NYT) predicted that Iran might retaliate by attacking refineries in Middle Eastern oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have allowed Israeli overflight rights.

The worst-case scenario related to strikes on Iran’s energy facilities is Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz, the world’s largest oil transit route, handles 30% of global seaborne oil and 20% of liquefied natural gas. If the strait is blocked, there are concerns about an energy crisis similar to that following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in March 2022. The British weekly magazine The Economist predicted that China, which recently launched massive economic stimulus measures to achieve a 5% growth target, would suffer significant damage. About half of China’s crude oil imports come from Gulf countries.

Iran’s nuclear facilities are located deep in the desert, so U.S. involvement is considered inevitable for any strikes. According to the NYT, there are concerns that Israel’s retaliation could accelerate moves within Iran to manufacture offensive nuclear weapons. Since the 2018 collapse of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA - Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), Iran has increased its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported in August that Iran recently increased its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium to 164.7 kg, a 16% increase compared to the 142.1 kg reported in May. Uranium enriched to 60% can be further processed into 90% enriched uranium, which is weapons-grade and can be used to make nuclear weapons. An IAEA official stated, “Iran currently possesses enough weapons-grade material to make nearly four nuclear weapons and could produce bomb-grade 90% purity uranium within days.”

Israel, an unofficial nuclear power in the Middle East, is extremely wary of Iran’s nuclear weapons possession. The U.S., which has pledged to prevent Iran’s nuclear weapons development, is also expected to intervene aggressively, potentially escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Israel Preparing for Four-Front War…Domestic and International Opposition

Meanwhile, Israel is currently attacking not only Hamas but also another ‘axis of resistance’?Hezbollah and the Houthis?on multiple fronts. Each time ceasefire negotiations progress, Israel’s airstrikes targeting the leaders have prevented any easing of tensions in the Middle East. Furthermore, Hamas’s new top political leader Yahya Sinwar is reportedly ordering the resumption of suicide bombings for the first time in 20 years.

As the war prolongs, changes in Israel’s domestic atmosphere are also being sensed. According to major foreign media, while public opinion initially strongly supported a robust response to Hamas’s attacks, recent protests in Tel Aviv, Israel’s largest city, have called for a ceasefire. There are cautious concerns that the prolonged conflict might tarnish Israel’s reputation as a ‘startup nation’ with 24 consecutive years of current account surpluses and an innovation ecosystem.

The international community’s stance on Israel’s Middle East offensive is divided. First, during Israel’s ground operations against Hezbollah, on the 10th, Israel destroyed facilities of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which plays a role in easing tensions in Lebanon. This led 40 countries worldwide, including South Korea, to issue statements condemning the action.

However, there are also claims that Israel’s Middle East operations since the Hamas war may be the most important contribution to defending Western civilization. Gerard Baker, editor of The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), recently wrote in an op-ed, “Over the past 12 months, Israel has eliminated thousands of terrorists who have taken countless lives across the Middle East and the world under the banner of devotion to theocratic ideology, significantly contributing to balancing security not only in the Middle East but globally.”

There are also predictions that Israel’s preemptive strikes against hostile Middle Eastern countries will continue. WSJ explained, “Since Hamas’s surprise attack in Gaza last year, Israel now believes it cannot allow its enemies the time and space to build arsenals capable of existential threats.”