NBC "National Approval Ratings Harris and Trump Tied at 48%"
ABC "Support in 7 Battleground States Equal at 49%"
Trump Leads White Male Support by 19 Points
Harris Concerned Over Hispanic Vote Loss
With the U.S. presidential election scheduled for the 5th of next month, former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, is rapidly closing the gap in approval ratings against Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate. Both candidates are tied in approval ratings not only nationwide but also in key battleground states that will determine the election outcome, creating an extremely close race. Notably, former President Trump is gaining strong support from white male voters in the Rust Belt battleground states, an area known for its declining industrial base, leading to speculation that Trump’s support base may consolidate further as the election approaches.
NBC·ABC Polls... Harris and Trump Tied in Nationwide and Battleground State Approval Ratings
According to a poll conducted by NBC News from October 4 to 8 among 1,000 registered voters, released on the 13th (local time), Vice President Harris and former President Trump were tied at 48% approval each (margin of error ±3.1 percentage points).
In the same poll last month, Vice President Harris held a 5-point lead over former President Trump, with 49% to 44%, but now they are tied after just one month. This result overturns previous surveys that showed Harris leading Trump in nationwide approval ratings.
NBC stated, "Following Trump’s TV debate and the resulting polling deficit, Republican supporters have rallied, and evaluations of his tenure have improved, giving him momentum in approval ratings."
The poll results released by ABC on the same day also showed a narrowing of Vice President Harris’s nationwide lead. In battleground states, former President Trump and Vice President Harris were tied in approval ratings.
According to a survey conducted by ABC and Ipsos from October 4 to 8 among 2,631 adults nationwide, released on the same day, Vice President Harris led former President Trump by 2 percentage points with 50% to 48% approval (margin of error ±2 percentage points). Narrowing the scope to 2,226 registered voters, Harris held 49% approval while Trump had 47%, maintaining Harris’s 2-point lead.
Compared to the same survey last month, Trump’s pursuit has intensified. In the September poll, Harris led Trump by 5 points among likely voters and by 4 points among registered voters. However, within a month, the gap narrowed to less than half, at 2 percentage points.
In the seven key battleground states critical to White House entry?Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin?Vice President Harris and former President Trump were tied at 49% approval each.
The two candidates showed differences in voter trust depending on policies such as the economy, immigration, and abortion. Trust in Trump’s economic policies was 46%, 8 points higher than Harris’s 38%. Regarding inflation response, Trump had 44% trust, while Harris had 37%. On middle-class support, Harris led with 42% trust compared to Trump’s 37%. Trump’s trust rating was 10 points higher on illegal immigration deportation, while Harris led by 15 points on the abortion issue.
ABC reported that Trump had higher trust ratings by single digits on crime and safety, national security, and Middle East conflict response, while Harris had higher trust by single digits on protecting American democracy.
Trump Leads in White Male Support... Harris Worried About Hispanic Vote Loss
By voter group, support for former President Trump increased among men and undecided voters. Among male registered voters, Trump’s approval was 52%, 8 points ahead of Harris’s 44%. In mid-September, both candidates were tied at 48%. Among white male voters, Trump led Harris by a significant 19 percentage points. This is unfavorable for Harris, considering the importance of white male working-class voters in the Rust Belt battleground states (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan) that will decide the election. Additionally, whether white male Democrats can overcome discomfort with Harris’s gender and race as a Black woman and vote for her on election day remains a key variable.
Among undecided voters with no party affiliation, Harris held 49% approval, while Trump had 44%. In mid-September, the figures were 51% and 41%, respectively, meaning Harris’s lead among undecided voters shrank from 10 points to 5 points in one month. Undecided voters have decided the winner in 9 out of the last 12 presidential elections.
Meanwhile, a survey showed that the traditional Democratic base of Hispanic voters is drifting away from Vice President Harris. According to a joint poll by The New York Times (NYT) and Siena College, Hispanic support for Harris stands at 56%, lower than the 62% for Joe Biden in the 2020 election, 68% for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and 70% for Barack Obama in 2012.
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