ABC·Ipsos Poll
Harris Leads, Margin Narrows from 4-5%P to 2%P in One Month
Tied at 49% Support in Battleground States
Trump Leads White Male Voter Support by 19%P
With the U.S. presidential election scheduled for the 5th of next month, former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, is rapidly closing the gap in approval ratings against Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate. In the battleground states that will determine the election outcome, the two candidates are tied in approval ratings, creating an extremely close race. Notably, former President Trump is receiving high support from white male voters who influence the Rust Belt battleground states, leading to speculation that Trump's support base may consolidate as the election approaches.
According to ABC News and polling firm Ipsos on the 13th (local time), Vice President Harris recorded a 50% approval rating, leading former President Trump (48%) by 2 percentage points. This survey was conducted from the 4th to the 8th of this month, targeting 2,631 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
Narrowing the scope to 2,226 registered voters, Vice President Harris held 49% support, while former President Trump had 47%, maintaining Harris's 2 percentage point lead.
Compared to the same survey last month, former President Trump's pursuit has intensified. In the September survey, Harris led Trump by 5 percentage points among likely voters and by 4 percentage points among registered voters. However, within a month, the gap narrowed to less than half, at 2 percentage points.
In the seven key battleground states crucial for White House entry?Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin?Vice President Harris and former President Trump each recorded 49% support, resulting in a tie.
The two candidates showed differences in voter trust depending on policies such as the economy, immigration, and abortion. Regarding economic policy, 46% trusted former President Trump, 8 percentage points higher than Vice President Harris's 38%. In addressing inflation, Trump had 44% trust, while Harris had 37%. For middle-class support, Harris led with 42% trust compared to Trump's 37%. On illegal immigration deportation, Trump's trust rating was 10 percentage points higher, whereas on the abortion issue, Harris's trust rating was 15 percentage points ahead.
ABC reported that on crime and safety, national security, and Middle East conflict response, former President Trump had higher trust by single-digit margins, while Vice President Harris had higher trust by single digits in protecting American democracy.
By voter demographics, support for former President Trump increased among men and undecided voters. Among male registered voters, Trump's support was 52%, 8 percentage points ahead of Harris's 44%. In mid-September, both candidates had equal support at 48%. Among white male voters, Trump led Harris by as much as 19 percentage points. Given that the white male working-class vote in the Rust Belt battleground states (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan) is crucial to the election outcome, these survey results are unfavorable for Vice President Harris. Additionally, whether white male Democrats can overcome discomfort regarding Harris's gender and race as a Black woman and vote for her on election day remains a key variable.
Among undecided voters with no party affiliation, Vice President Harris recorded 49% support, while former President Trump had 44%. In the mid-September survey, they had 51% and 41% respectively, meaning Harris's lead among undecided voters shrank from 10 percentage points to 5 percentage points within a month. Undecided voters have decided the winner in 9 out of the last 12 presidential elections.
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