[New York Diary] "Trump Season 2" Approaches... How Prepared Are We?

Who will be the next president of the United States? At first glance, local media polls suggest that Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris is likely to win. According to The New York Times (NYT) and others, Harris leads former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, by about 3 percentage points in nationwide support. Perhaps due to the fear during Trump's first term, marked by uncertainties in trade, defense spending, and North Korean nuclear issues, there is a quiet hope for Harris's victory in South Korea. Other countries, including those in Europe, share a similar sentiment.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

However, a closer look reveals a different reality. While Harris holds an advantage in nationwide polls, the seven key battleground states that will decide the election are extremely close, with the margin between the two candidates within 1 to 2 percentage points. Many predict a Trump victory based on this. First, there remains a significant number of hidden Trump supporters known as "shy Trump" voters. A white woman in her 60s from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania?a crucial battleground?told a reporter, "Trump will restore the U.S. economy, which suffered under inflation, to prosperity," adding, "My friends and I are all silent Trump supporters who do not openly show our support." This means that despite Trump's notorious controversial remarks and various legal risks, many voters hide their true feelings but will cast their ballots for him. This phenomenon of shy Trump voters potentially giving Trump 2 to 3 percentage points more votes than polls indicate is why some expect his support to consolidate on election day.

There is also analysis that Harris's identity as a Black woman could be a disadvantage. Among white male voters, who are decisive in winning battleground states, even Democratic supporters hold ambivalent views regarding Harris's gender and race. In a U.S. society dominated by white males, discomfort toward Harris as both Black and female could manifest at the polls. Whites still make up 57% of the U.S. population, and in Pennsylvania?the largest battleground state?80% of the population is white. Compared to President Joe Biden, a white male conservative Catholic known for his physical warmth in politics, Harris's appeal to white male voters is likely weaker. Since voter turnout among one's base is crucial in elections, Harris's support among minority women appears less consolidated compared to Trump's strong fandom.

In this context, the U.S. Electoral College system could produce a scenario similar to those faced by former Democratic presidential candidates Al Gore and Hillary Clinton, where a candidate wins the popular vote nationwide but loses in the Electoral College. Among the seven battleground states, Pennsylvania holds the largest number of electors at 19, and Trump’s support among white voters there appears to be strengthening. According to recent polls by The Hill and Emerson College, Trump leads Harris by 1 percentage point in Pennsylvania, with 49% to 48%. Pennsylvania is a region where economic issues such as fracking and the sale of US Steel are particularly important, which could favor Trump, who is relatively well-regarded for his economic policies. Additionally, the impact of Hurricane Milton hitting the southern U.S. and rising oil prices due to heightened tensions between Israel and Iran are negative factors for Harris.

If a second Trump administration materializes, it is highly likely that a stronger "America First" stance will be adopted in foreign policy. Moreover, Trump's so-called "brains" have increased in his second term, and his political standing is far more solid than it was eight years ago. In this situation, it is questionable whether South Korea has prepared adequate countermeasures. The political sphere is consumed by futile conflicts over controversies involving First Lady Kim Keon-hee and legal risks surrounding Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party. Bureaucrats who suffered from the previous administration's "anti-corruption" campaigns are trying to remain inactive and avoid attracting attention from higher-ups. How prepared are we for the possibility of a second Trump administration? The U.S. presidential election is only 24 days away. There is no time to waste.