Originally Predictable Election Turns into a Close Contest
Ultra-Close Races in Busan Geumjeong-gu and Jeonnam Yeonggwang-gun
Outcome May Intensify Calls for Regime Judgment
From the outset, the political sphere regarded the October 16 by-elections for four basic local government heads as a 'breeze.' However, with suspicions of Kim Geon-hee's interference in candidate selection and the trial of Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, overlapping, there are predictions that the election results could become a 'storm.'
According to a compilation of various opinion polls on the 11th, the October 16 by-election results are showing an unpredictable close race. Busan Geumjeong-gu and Incheon Ganghwa-gun are considered strongholds of the People Power Party, while Jeonnam Yeonggwang and Gokseong-gun are seen as Democratic Party strongholds, making the elections initially predictable. However, the election dynamics are rapidly changing.
According to opinion polls, the Busan Geumjeong-gu election is extremely close. An Every Research poll (commissioned jointly by News Spirit and Every News, targeting 500 residents aged 18 and over in Busan Geumjeong-gu, conducted on the 6th and 7th via 100% automated wireless response) shows Democratic Party candidate Kim Kyung-ji with 45.8% support and People Power Party candidate Yoon Il-hyun with 42.3%, indicating a neck-and-neck race within the margin of error (±4.4%). Although the area is traditionally conservative and a landslide victory for the People Power Party was expected, the situation is volatile. This is due to unexpected setbacks for the government and ruling party, combined with opposition candidate unification.
Jeonnam Yeonggwang-gun is also showing unusual signs. A Realmeter poll (commissioned by Namdo Ilbo, targeting 502 residents aged 18 and over in Yeonggwang-gun, conducted on the 7th and 8th with 95% wireless and 5% wired automated responses) shows support for Progressive Party candidate Lee Seok-ha at 35.0%, Democratic Party candidate Jang Se-il at 33.4%, and Justice Innovation Party candidate Jang Hyun at 27.4%. The three candidates are in a tight race within the margin of error. The Justice Innovation Party is challenging the Democratic Party's established dominance in the region, leading to a fierce contest among candidates and parties, while the Progressive Party, strong in organizational power, is carving out a niche.
However, in Jeonnam Gokseong-gun, Democratic Party candidate Jo Sang-rae is leading, and in Incheon Ganghwa-gun, People Power Party candidate Park Yong-chul is ahead.
As the election results become unpredictable, the movements of both ruling and opposition party leadership are intensifying. People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon conducted a two-day campaign from the 5th to 6th and visited Busan again on the 9th, showing strong commitment. Lee Jae-myung also visited Busan Geumjeong-gu on the 9th before moving to Jeonnam Yeonggwang-gun for a two-day campaign.
For Lee, since Honam has traditionally been a Democratic Party stronghold, losing even one area in this election could cause significant damage. With the party's judicial risks increasing due to first trial results expected next month, the election outcome could be a double-edged sword. Conversely, a victory in the Busan Geumjeong-gu mayoral election would change the situation, allowing for a more aggressive stance against the government and ruling party.
For Han, maintaining existing strongholds would earn him recognition for protecting the party during a crisis and could strengthen his position in private meetings with President Yoon. Conversely, a loss would narrow Han's influence. Justice Innovation Party leader Jo Guk also views this election as crucial. Securing a foothold in Honam would establish a foundation for independent survival.
Since the by-elections are held on a non-holiday, voter turnout is expected to be a key factor. During last year's second half by-elections, the early voting rate at 11 a.m. on the first day for the Seoul Gangseo-gu mayoral election was 2.56%. At the same time this year, early voting rates were 3.02% in Busan Geumjeong-gu, 5.43% in Incheon Ganghwa-gun, 9.72% in Jeonnam Gokseong-gun, and 10.41% in Jeonnam Yeonggwang-gun, surpassing last year's early voting rates. However, the voter turnout for the Seoul Metropolitan Office of Education election was only 0.91%.
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