Yahoo News·YouGov Poll Results
Harris Lead Narrows from 5%P to 2%P
Labor Support in Swing States Also Trails Biden and Hillary
With the U.S. presidential election scheduled for the 5th of next month, a poll has revealed that the gap in approval ratings between Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate former President Donald Trump has narrowed. Analysis also suggests that Vice President Harris is struggling to secure the support of workers in the Rust Belt, a battleground region with a Democratic advantage known for its declining industrial areas.
According to Yahoo News and polling agency YouGov on the 7th (local time), a survey conducted from the 2nd to the 4th targeting 1,714 voters showed that Vice President Harris received 48% support from registered voters, leading former President Trump, who had 46%, by 2 percentage points (margin of error ±3 percentage points).
In a similar poll conducted by the same agency shortly after the two candidates faced off in a TV debate on the 10th of last month, Vice President Harris recorded 50% support while former President Trump had 45%. This means that Harris’s lead in approval ratings narrowed from 5 percentage points to 2 percentage points in one month.
This poll was conducted after the vice presidential debate on the 1st between Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz, Governor of Minnesota, and Republican candidate J.D. Vance, U.S. Senator from Ohio. The vice presidential debate was widely regarded as a victory for Senator Vance. In this poll, 41% of respondents judged Vance as the winner, ahead of Governor Walz’s 32%.
Yahoo News commented, "Vice President Harris’s approval ratings rose following her strong performance in the September presidential debate, but this poll indicates a return to the previous statistical stalemate. However, the impact of the vice presidential debate on the decline in approval ratings is likely minimal."
Meanwhile, concerns have been raised that Vice President Harris is struggling in the Rust Belt battleground states, where she must win to enter the White House.
The seven key battleground states that will decide the U.S. presidential election are broadly divided into the labor union-friendly Rust Belt (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan), where Democrats have an advantage, and the strongly Republican Sun Belt in the South (Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina). For Vice President Harris to win the election, she must secure victory in the Rust Belt. However, Harris leads former President Trump by only 9 percentage points among working-class voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania, falling short of previous Democratic presidential candidates, according to U.S. political media outlet The Hill. According to The Hill, exit polls showed that in the 2020 election, President Joe Biden led former President Trump by about 16 percentage points, and in 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton led by about 12 percentage points.
Unlike President Biden, who has shown lifelong support for labor unions, Vice President Harris has had no special relationship with unions, which is seen as a limitation. The media also points out that the culturally conservative nature of union members and their discomfort with the prospect of the first female U.S. president may be reasons why Vice President Harris is struggling in the Rust Belt battleground states.
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