[News in Numbers] Defending Total Fertility Rate at 0.7... Hopes for a Low Birthrate Reversal

Can the total fertility rate be maintained in the 0.7 range this year?

Attention is focused on whether the birth rate increase in July, the highest in 17 years, will signal a reversal of the low birthrate trend.

According to the "July Population Trends" released by Statistics Korea, the number of births in July was 20,601, an increase of 1,516 (7.9%) compared to the previous month. In terms of growth rate, this is the highest since July 2007, when it increased by 12.4%. It is analyzed that the rise in marriages after COVID-19 led to the increase in births in the second half of this year.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The number of marriages in July was 18,811, an increase of 4,658 (32.9%) compared to the previous month. This is the largest growth rate for July since monthly statistics began in 1981.

As these families start having children, if the number of births increases as much as it did in July, there is hope that the total fertility rate (the expected number of children a woman of childbearing age will have in her lifetime) could shift to an upward trend.

Initially, the total fertility rate for this year was projected at 0.68, but assuming the number of births after July remains the same as last year, it is explained that the 0.7 range can be maintained this year.

The cumulative number of births from January to July was 137,913, which is 1,722 fewer than the previous year, but this scenario is possible if the number of births in August and September is similar to that of July.

One of the reasons for the increase in marriages and births is the government's real estate policies targeting newlyweds and families with children. In particular, the number of marriages increased by 24.6% and 21.6% in April and May, respectively, which are peak marriage seasons, as well as in July, a low season. It is assessed that policies such as special housing supply for newlyweds and special loans for newborns have had some influence. The government is expected to introduce various policies to sustain the momentum of the fertility rate rebound.

President Yoon Suk-yeol attended the "Work-Family Balance Excellent Companies Performance Sharing Meeting" held at the Korea Federation of SMEs in Yeouido, Seoul, on the 25th, stating, "Since we have barely rekindled the spark of fertility rate rebound, now the public and private sectors must join forces to create a definite turning momentum," adding, "Overcoming low birthrate and population crisis is a task for our entire society to work together to improve awareness and structure." He continued, "The government will do its best to support this. We will consider tax benefits for excellent SMEs leading work-family balance and explore measures such as deferring national tax audits," and "In addition, we will prepare detailed support plans to help small and medium-sized enterprises overcome difficulties in the field," announcing various policies.

Meanwhile, last year's total fertility rate was 0.72. Compared to 4.53 in 1970, this is a decrease of 84.1%. It is about half the level of Europe (1.40) and North America (1.60), and is estimated to be the lowest in the world except for Macau (0.66).