"Preparation Period Over 15 Years"... Pippi Explosion Shocks Hezbollah [AK Radio]

Casualties Surge After Israel's Additional Airstrikes
Lebanon Faces Greater Instability as Hezbollah Weakens
Full-Scale War Involvement by Iran Still Unlikely

Military tensions between Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah have reached a peak. Recently, suspicions have arisen that Israel was behind the simultaneous explosions of pagers and walkie-talkies across Lebanon, leading to ongoing military clashes between the two sides. Lebanon, where fears of an all-out war with Israel are growing, is also experiencing worsening political instability.

Pager Explosion Incident Spreads... "Preparation Period Likely Over 15 Years"

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

According to CNN, on the 23rd (local time), the Israeli military launched a large-scale bombing targeting Hezbollah's main bases, resulting in at least 492 deaths. This marks the highest number of casualties since the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. As the clashes triggered by the pager explosion incident intensify, civilian casualties are also increasing significantly.

Earlier, on the 17th and 18th, Hezbollah members across Lebanon suffered large-scale casualties as their pagers and walkie-talkies exploded. According to CNN, the Lebanese Ministry of Health officially announced that 9 people died and 2,750 were injured due to the pager explosion incident on the 17th. The death toll has since risen to 37, and about 200 of the injured remain in critical condition, suggesting the number of deaths may continue to rise.

Various suspicions have been raised regarding the background of the explosion incident. Hezbollah has been using outdated communication devices such as pagers and walkie-talkies because using modern devices like smartphones poses risks of location tracking and information leaks. The ban on smartphone use for communication security has inadvertently exacerbated this explosion incident.

Israel has not taken a clear stance on this incident. Israeli authorities maintain an ambiguous attitude, neither denying nor admitting any connection to the explosion. However, Israel continues to engage in clashes with Hezbollah along the northern border even amid conflicts with Hamas, intensifying the confrontations. Analysts suggest that Israel intends to instill fear not only in Hezbollah but throughout Lebanon. This is seen as a strategy to foster anti-war sentiment within Lebanon and suppress Hezbollah's military activities.

U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Israel has likely prepared for over 15 years to cause large-scale casualties using Phaser bombs, which were previously only used for assassinating a few high-ranking officials or agents. It is analyzed that Israel gradually infiltrated Hezbollah's supply chain of walkie-talkies and pagers, enabling the installation of explosives in thousands of pagers.

U.S. ABC News, citing U.S. intelligence sources, reported, "Israel has been directly involved in the production of Hezbollah's pagers that exploded across Lebanon and appears to have planned a supply chain disruption operation for at least 15 years." It added, "Israel operated several shell companies and even ran companies manufacturing pagers to carry out the operation."

Hezbollah Severely Shaken... Lebanon's 'March 8 Alliance' Coalition Also Threatened

[Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

As Hezbollah loses a significant number of its military personnel, its organization is beginning to be severely shaken, raising concerns about increased political instability in Lebanon. Hezbollah is a pro-Iranian Islamic Shia party established in 1982 to resist Israel. It has an armed wing and currently leads Lebanon's ruling coalition, the 'March 8 Alliance.'

Lebanese politics is divided mainly between the pro-Iranian and Syrian faction led by Hezbollah's 'March 8 Alliance' and the pro-Saudi Sunni parties forming the 'March 14 Alliance.' Lebanon, where Maronite Eastern Christian believers?a branch of the Roman Catholic Church?and Sunni and Shia Muslims each make up about 30% of the population, has complex political forces divided by sect and faction.

Although Hezbollah is perceived externally as a radical Islamic fundamentalist group, domestically it forms the March 8 Alliance together with Christian forces such as the Maronite Christian party 'Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)' to maintain the coalition government. If the localized conflict between Israel and Hezbollah prolongs and Hezbollah's power significantly weakens, Lebanon's political instability is expected to deepen further.

In Case of Full-Scale War Between Iran and Israel, 5th Middle East War... Possibility Currently Low

[Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

Analysts say the possibility of the Middle East conflict escalating into a fifth war largely depends on Iran's involvement. If Iran intervenes fully, the conflict with Israel could spread across the entire Middle East. However, due to Iran's economic situation, internal turmoil, and U.S. sanctions, it is expected to be difficult for Iran to engage in a full-scale war easily. Iran is currently facing political and economic hardships, and starting a war under such circumstances would be a significant burden.

Israel, too, is depleting resources due to the war with Hamas, making a full-scale war with Iran a difficult choice. Israel's military equipment and finances heavily rely on U.S. support. However, the U.S. is currently in an election phase and focusing more on domestic affairs than Middle East issues. Since Israel would find it hard to sustain a prolonged war without U.S. financial aid, it is likely to avoid a full-scale war with Iran.

Ultimately, the direction of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah depends on the strategic calculations of both sides. Israel lacks the capacity to start a new war in the Middle East but may continue to adopt a hardline military response. Israel is navigating a complex diplomatic calculation, simultaneously confronting Hamas and Hezbollah while trying to avoid conflict with Iran.

On the other hand, Hezbollah has labeled this incident as an Israeli operation and continues to respond strongly. However, as civilian casualties increase within Lebanon, anti-war sentiment is also growing domestically. Under these circumstances, Hezbollah's military position may weaken further. Therefore, the duration of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah depends on Hezbollah's response and Lebanon's political situation.

Currently, while there is a possibility that the conflict could escalate into a larger war, its realization remains uncertain. Unless Iran intervenes directly, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is likely to be managed at a certain level. However, if Iran becomes involved, there is a risk that the entire Middle East could be engulfed in war. This incident has once again revealed the instability of the Middle East region, and tensions in the international community are expected to rise further.

As clashes between Israel and Hezbollah continue, civilian casualties are also increasing. The world’s attention is focused on how long the conflict will last and whether it will escalate into a Middle East war.

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