[Reporter’s Notebook] Achieving Carbon Neutrality by 2050 Is Difficult Even If Only Electric Vehicles Are Sold Now

Current Status of Biofuels in the U.S.
Realistic Limits to Full Adoption of Zero-Emission Vehicles
The Need to Consider Low-Carbon Fuels

Although unlikely, let's assume that electric vehicles (EVs) are sold in South Korea at a penetration rate similar to that of Norway, which has the highest EV penetration rate in the world. In Norway, the total number of cars sold up to August this year is just under 80,000, of which about 68,000 are battery electric vehicles.

If applied directly to South Korea, where about 1.5 million new cars are sold annually, more than 1.3 million of these would be electric vehicles. Major countries, including South Korea, have declared that they will no longer sell internal combustion engine vehicles around 2035. If existing vehicles are gradually phased out as new EVs are sold, and from about ten years later only EVs are sold as promised, could all the cars on the streets by 2050 be replaced with zero-emission electric vehicles?

It is considered difficult. As of July this year, there are about 26 million registered vehicles in South Korea, of which only about 660,000 are electric vehicles (including hydrogen cars), accounting for just 2.5%. Nowadays, cars are more durable, and it is common to use them for more than 15 years. Even under unrealistic assumptions, it would take more than 20 years for EVs to become mainstream. Considering the expected prolonged slowdown in EV demand and the complexity of carbon capture and utilization technologies, achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 is realistically a distant goal.

During a recent visit to the United States to cover the biofuel industry, it was impressive to see that rather than artificially reducing internal combustion engine vehicles or increasing EV adoption, they are considering ways to operate existing vehicles more cleanly. In the U.S., it is mandatory to blend 10% bioethanol, one of the renewable energies, into gasoline.

Until the 1970s, the main purpose in the U.S. was to reduce energy import dependence due to the oil crisis. Now, the expectation is greater that it will reduce carbon emissions and serve as an intermediate step in the electrification transition. Even in places where conditions for ethanol production are insufficient, ethanol blending policies are being introduced one by one. The Philippines, the first in Southeast Asia to adopt this, plans to increase the blend ratio to 20%.

Charlie Boselman, chairman of Boselman Enterprises, a U.S. company operating gas station chains and EV charging businesses, believes that expanding EV adoption is not easy. The rapid increase in car ownership in the past was largely due to the quick spread of fuel supply infrastructure, i.e., gas stations, everywhere. Can EV charging stations increase as quickly? Due to the complex electricity tariff system, it is unclear whether charging operators are currently making a profit or incurring losses, so who would readily enter the business?

Chairman Boselman's concerns are not much different across the ocean in South Korea. The government's conservative carbon neutrality scenario for the transportation sector assumes 85% zero-emission vehicles such as electric and hydrogen cars. If realistically achieving this is difficult, it would be the right direction to also consider using fuels that emit less carbon and cleaner fuels.