[Good Morning Stock Market] This Week's KOSPI and Semiconductors Depend on 'Micron'

The key to this week's KOSPI reversal lies in Micron Technology's earnings. Attention is focused on whether the stock prices of the two leading domestic semiconductor companies, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which plunged sharply following disappointing earnings forecasts and a Morgan Stanley report, will find a turning point depending on Micron's earnings results. Additionally, the upcoming launch results of the 'KRX Korea Value-Up Index' scheduled for release on the 24th are also expected to influence the KOSPI trend.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to the Korea Exchange on the 23rd, last week the KOSPI closed at 2,593.37, up 17.96 points (0.70%) from the previous week. Despite the U.S. Federal Reserve's big cut (a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the benchmark interest rate), the market response was lukewarm due to concerns over a slowdown in the U.S. economy. During the same period, the KOSDAQ index closed at 748.33, up 15.13 points (2.06%).

iM Securities analyzed, "The Fed's big cut tailwind arrived a day late, leading to gains in the KOSPI (0.49%) and KOSDAQ (1.19%) by the close. The KOSPI expanded its gains early in the session, rising as much as 1.50%, but gave back some of the gains due to increased foreign selling around 2 p.m., finishing slightly higher."

On the 20th (local time), the New York stock market closed flat due to fatigue after the big cut rally. At the New York Stock Exchange that day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 42,063.36, up 38.17 points (0.09%) from the previous trading day. The S&P 500 fell 11.09 points (0.19%) to 5,702.55, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 65.66 points (0.36%) to 17,948.32.

This week’s market is also expected to be one where semiconductors determine the market mood. On the 25th (local time), Micron, the world's third-largest memory semiconductor company based in the U.S., will release its fiscal year 4th quarter (June?August) earnings.

Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said, "Micron's earnings scheduled for the 25th are expected to be a key factor in the domestic stock market." She added, "Recently, some foreign institutions such as Morgan Stanley have expressed negative views on the semiconductor industry overall, including Micron, Samsung Electronics, and SK Hynix, citing reasons such as HBM oversupply and DRAM peak-out, which has increased uncertainty in the industry outlook." She further explained, "The Korea Value-Up Index, scheduled to be launched early to mid-week as part of the exchange's corporate value-up program, is also expected to be an event that triggers a rotation in market supply and demand."

Kim Ji-won, a researcher at KB Securities, said, "In Korea, amid sluggish stock price movements, attention should be paid this week to the Value-Up Index announcement and Micron's earnings results." He also noted, "U.S. GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data are also scheduled."