Harris Leads Trump by 4-5%P... 'Early Voting Begins' in Tight US Presidential Race

CBS "Harris Leads Nationwide by 4%P and Swing States by 2%P"
NBC Poll... Harris 49% vs Trump 44%
Early Voting Begins on the 20th Amid Tight Race

With early voting underway ahead of the U.S. presidential election on November 5, another poll has shown Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris leading Republican candidate former President Donald Trump. Although Vice President Harris holds an edge in the battleground states that will decide the election outcome, the race remains extremely close within the margin of error, making it difficult to predict the final result until election day.

According to a poll released on the 22nd (local time) by CBS, conducted from the 18th to the 20th among 3,129 registered voters nationwide, 52% of respondents said they would vote for Vice President Harris (margin of error ±2.1 percentage points). This is 4 percentage points higher than the 48% who said they would vote for former President Trump.

Among voters in seven key battleground states that will determine the election outcome, 51% said they would vote for Vice President Harris, narrowly leading former President Trump’s 49% by 2 percentage points. Last month, both candidates were tied at 50%, but Vice President Harris has widened the gap within a month.

Vice President Harris holds a 1 to 3 percentage point lead in five battleground states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina. Former President Trump leads by 1 percentage point in Georgia. In Pennsylvania, considered the most fiercely contested state, both candidates are tied at 49% support.

The slight increase in the perception that the economy has improved due to interest rate cuts and falling oil prices?from 35% in August to 39%?is analyzed to have driven Vice President Harris’s rise in support. Among voters who consider the economy the most important issue when voting, Harris’s support rose from 43% in August to 47%. Meanwhile, Trump’s support among this group fell from 56% to 53% during the same period. CBS also evaluated that the presidential debate held on the 10th positively influenced Harris’s lead in support.

In an NBC poll as well, Vice President Harris leads former President Trump. According to the results announced on the same day, based on a survey conducted from the 13th to the 17th among 1,000 registered voters, Harris received 49% support while Trump received 44% (margin of error ±3.1 percentage points). In the previous July poll, Trump led then-Democratic candidate President Joe Biden by 2 percentage points, but after Harris was introduced as the replacement candidate, she overtook Trump in support.

Notably, Harris’s favorability rating surged sharply. In the July poll, 32% of respondents viewed Harris positively, but this rose dramatically to 48% in the recent survey. This is the highest level since the 30-point surge in favorability for President George W. Bush immediately following the September 11, 2001 attacks.

As Vice President Harris holds a slight lead within the margin of error and the race remains extremely close, early voting for the U.S. presidential election officially began two days ago. The United States conducts early voting for all voters in 47 of its 50 states, with voting starting on the 20th in Virginia, South Dakota, and Minnesota. Early voting rates have increased in importance, rising from 33% in 2012 to 40% in 2016 and 69% in 2020, and are expected to have a significant impact on the ultra-close election. Traditionally, early voting has been seen as advantageous to the Democrats because socially disadvantaged groups who find it difficult to access polling stations on election day tend to participate actively. However, there is also considerable speculation that energized Republican voters have mobilized in response, meaning early voting may not necessarily favor the Democrats this time.

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, told CNN on the day, "This election will be fierce, and we have always known that," adding, "We know that there will be close contests in battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin."

Meanwhile, the possibility of additional TV debates, a major point of interest in the U.S. presidential election, has diminished. Former President Trump, who was judged to have lost the debate held on the 10th, expressed refusal at a rally on the 21st, saying, "Voting has already started, so it’s too late." Vice President Harris’s camp had expressed willingness to participate in additional debates.