Trump Holds Narrow Lead in 4 of 7 Battleground States
In the upcoming November election for the White House, the nationwide approval ratings of Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump have tied, showing an extremely close race.
The New York Times (NYT), along with the Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College, conducted a nationwide poll from the 11th to the 16th (local time) surveying 2,437 likely voters. The results showed both candidates tied at 47% support, with a margin of error of ±3.0 percentage points.
This poll was conducted shortly after the first TV debate between the two candidates, hosted by ABC on the 10th, making it a key indicator of shifts in public opinion. According to the poll, 67% of respondents said Vice President Harris performed “well” in the debate (29% said “poorly”), while only 40% said former President Trump performed “well” (56% said “poorly”).
Overall, Vice President Harris received a much more favorable debate scorecard, but this did not translate into a significant lead in nationwide approval ratings. The NYT analyzed this by stating, “The poll results confirm that Harris left an overwhelming impression on voters during the debate, but she has yet to secure a decisive advantage in the presidential race.”
On the other hand, despite being considered the “loser” of the debate, former President Trump is performing well in key battleground states crucial to the election. According to a poll conducted by political media outlet The Hill and Emerson College from the 15th to the 18th, covering seven battleground states (with state-specific margins of error ranging from ±3.0 to 3.3 percentage points), Trump held a narrow lead within the margin of error in Arizona (49% to 48%), Georgia (50% to 47%), Pennsylvania (48% to 47%), and Wisconsin (49% to 48%). Vice President Harris led slightly in Michigan (49% to 47%) and North Carolina (49% to 48%). Nevada showed a tie.
Among the seven battleground states, Pennsylvania, which has the largest number of electoral votes (19), has historically been a fiercely contested state between Trump and Democratic candidates in every presidential election he has entered. The outcome there often determines the overall election result, making it a critical region for both candidates. In The Hill and Emerson College poll, Trump led by 1 percentage point, but the NYT poll showed Vice President Harris with 50% support in Pennsylvania, surpassing Trump’s 46% by more than the margin of error (±3.8 percentage points). Former President Trump narrowly defeated Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton by less than 1 percentage point in Pennsylvania during the 2016 election to enter the White House, but lost to President Joe Biden by 1 percentage point in the 2020 election, relinquishing the presidency.
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