Harris Leads in Key Battleground States... Trump Ahead in Nationwide Polls

Pennsylvania, the Largest Battleground State, Shows Lead Beyond Margin of Error
Trump Favorability Rises from 41% to 46%... Harris Drops from 47% to 44%
111 Former Republican Officials and Lawmakers "Support Harris"

In key battleground states that play a casting vote role in the U.S. presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris's support is rising. On the other hand, former President Donald Trump shows strength on a nationwide scale.

According to a poll conducted by Quinnipiac University from the 12th to the 16th in three Rust Belt battleground states (the declining industrial area near the Great Lakes) and released on the 18th (local time), Vice President Harris received 51% support in Pennsylvania (1,331 voters surveyed), surpassing former President Trump’s 45% by a margin beyond the margin of error (±2.7 percentage points). Pennsylvania is a battleground state with the largest number of electoral votes (19) assigned in this election, and both candidates are fighting hard for this region.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Vice President Kamala Harris [Image source=Xinhua News Agency]

In Michigan (905 respondents, margin of error ±3.3 percentage points), Vice President Harris also led with 50% support, ahead of former President Trump’s 45% by a margin exceeding the margin of error. In Wisconsin (1,075 respondents, ±3.0 percentage points), Harris’s support stood at 48%, narrowly leading former President Trump’s 47%.

Winning the votes in these three battleground states, historically Democratic strongholds known as the ‘Blue Wall,’ plays a decisive role in entering the White House. Former President Trump won all three battleground states in the 2016 election to secure his victory, but in 2020, President Joe Biden reclaimed them and won the election.

Tim Malloy, an analyst at Quinnipiac University, explained, "A red flag has been raised for the Trump campaign in these three key battleground states," adding, "The Republican Party’s immigration and economic attack strategies may be losing momentum."

Among the Southern Sun Belt battleground states, former President Trump holds an advantage in Georgia, but Vice President Harris is closing in rapidly. Georgia is the second-largest battleground state after Pennsylvania, with 16 electoral votes assigned. According to a poll conducted by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (AJC) and Georgia State University from the 9th to the 15th surveying 1,000 voters, former President Trump’s support was 47%, while Vice President Harris’s was 44%. They are in a close race within the margin of error (±3.1 percentage points). In a hypothetical matchup conducted before President Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race in July, Trump led Harris by 5 percentage points, 51% to 46%.

While Vice President Harris leads in battleground states, she trails former President Trump in nationwide polls. In a Gallup poll conducted from the 3rd to the 15th surveying 1,007 Americans, former President Trump’s favorability rating was 46%, up 5 percentage points from the August poll. Meanwhile, Harris’s favorability rating dropped from 47% in August to 44% this month. Their unfavorability ratings are similar, with Harris at 54% and Trump at 53%.

Meanwhile, on the same day, 111 former Republican officials and lawmakers declared their support for Vice President Harris. According to a letter released by the Harris campaign, they stated, "We do not agree with Vice President Harris’s policies, but she possesses the essential qualities to serve as president, whereas former President Trump does not." The letter included endorsements from senior officials of the Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and George W. Bush administrations, as well as former officials from the Trump administration.