North Fires Missile Inland... Gaining Confidence? [Yang Nakgyu's Defence Club]

Mixed Launch of Ballistic, Missile, and Cruise Missiles
Fired Inland Instead of Sea to Demonstrate Accuracy

North Korea is increasing the warhead weight of its ballistic missiles. Considering the range, it appears to be targeting strategic weapons aimed at key underground military facilities such as the South Korea-US underground command centers.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 19th, North Korea's Korean Central News Agency reported that the Missile General Bureau successfully conducted test launches of the new tactical ballistic missile ‘Hwaseongpo-11da-4.5’ and an improved strategic cruise missile the previous day. The Hwaseongpo-11da-4.5 is a missile upgraded with a 4.5-ton high-weight warhead by enlarging the warhead of the KN-23 short-range ballistic missile (SRBM), known as the ‘North Korean version of Iskander.’

South Korean military authorities analyze that North Korea launched ballistic and cruise missiles on the morning of the 18th. The mixed launch of ballistic and cruise missiles is intended to confuse the judgment of South Korean and US authorities. The ballistic missile flew northeast, while the cruise missile, launched with a time difference, flew in a figure-eight pattern over the West Sea. Ballistic missiles generally fly at a high altitude along a fixed ballistic trajectory, making them easy to detect by radar. However, they have strong thrust, can carry heavy warheads, and travel at high speeds. Cruise missiles fly at speeds below the speed of sound, slower and less destructive than ballistic missiles, but they fly at very low altitudes to evade radar, requiring additional surveillance and reconnaissance assets such as reconnaissance satellites looking down from the air to track them.

Increasing Warhead Weight Targeting US-ROK Underground Command Centers

A notable point is that North Korea launched the ballistic missile with an increased warhead weight inland rather than over the sea. This is to demonstrate accuracy. The first test launch took place on July 1 in Jangyeon, South Hwanghae Province, and among the two missiles launched northeast, one flew about 600 km, but the other flew only about 120 km, presumed to have failed. In other words, one missile fell into the sea off Chongjin, but the other is believed to have crashed near Pyongyang.

Unlike the first test launch in July, this time photos showing the missile falling on inland land were also released. North Korea often targets uninhabited islands in the East Sea for short-range ballistic missile test launches. Although there have been cases where missiles failed and fell inland, this is the first time North Korea has openly stated that it intentionally fired inland. Since it is difficult to launch missiles inland without confidence in accuracy, this is interpreted as an attempt to showcase the missile’s high accuracy.

Yoo Yong-won, a member of the People Power Party, analyzed, "There is a possibility that it will be developed to carry underground penetrating warheads and thermobaric warheads for striking key underground military facilities such as US-ROK underground command centers."

The warhead mounted on North Korea’s KN-23 is at least 500 kg. In March 2021, North Korea launched a missile equipped with a 2.5-ton warhead on the KN-23. It appears that they have continuously pursued upgrades to increase warhead weight and fuel capacity. While focusing on developing nuclear warheads, North Korea is also producing missiles equipped with conventional high-weight warheads similar to South Korea’s, broadening strategic and tactical options.

ROK Military to Begin Full-Scale Production of Hyunmoo-5 This Year

Equipping ballistic missiles with high-weight warheads is a missile development approach pursued by South Korea, which does not possess nuclear weapons, to counter North Korea’s nuclear threat. The South Korean military possesses ‘high-power missiles’ with warhead weights exceeding 8 tons. Commonly called ‘Hyunmoo-5,’ these missiles are believed to be operated to destroy underground bunkers scattered across North Korea. The military has decided to upgrade the performance of the Hyunmoo-5 ballistic missile. The Hyunmoo-5 is the world’s ballistic missile capable of carrying the heaviest warhead (8?9 tons). With performance upgrades, the explosive power can be maintained while reducing warhead weight and increasing range.

The Hyunmoo-5 can destroy targets such as tunnels or bunkers deeper than 100 meters underground. It can deliver destruction comparable to nuclear weapons. The reason for the performance upgrade is the range. When carrying an 8-ton warhead, the Hyunmoo-5 flies over 300 km; with a 6-ton warhead, it flies over 600 km. Its speed is at least Mach 10. Full-scale production of the Hyunmoo-5 is scheduled to begin this year, and production of the upgraded Hyunmoo-5 will start as soon as testing is completed. Hanwha Aerospace manufactures the Hyunmoo-5 series missiles. The Hyunmoo-5 can be produced up to about 70 units annually, and the upgraded version up to about 40 units annually.

Hyunmoo-5 Warhead Weight of 8 Tons... Performance Upgrade Initiated

The Hyunmoo-5 series ballistic missiles are a representative means of the ‘Korean-style 3-axis’ system’s massive retaliation (KMPR). The military plans to deploy up to about 200 units to units under the Missile Command. The Hyunmoo-5 is expected to be deployed to units such as the 1200th Battalion under the Missile Command’s ballistic missile brigade.

A military official said, "To increase warhead weight, thrust must be increased while maintaining balanced flight characteristics," adding, "It appears that North Korea is steadily upgrading the performance of its high-weight ballistic missiles."