Koizumi, Support Rate Drops in Some Polls
Ishiba Tops All Polls in Mid-Month Survey
Takaichi Ranks 3rd but Popular in LDP Local Organizations
Shinjiro Koizumi (43), former Minister of the Environment and considered one of the leading candidates in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election to succeed Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on the 27th, is showing a declining trend in approval ratings.
Instead, Shigeru Ishiba (67), former LDP Secretary-General and regarded as one of the 'two strong contenders' alongside Koizumi, has been rising and even topped some polls, leading to a reversal in support and a fierce battle in the final stages. Additionally, Sanae Takaichi (63), Minister in charge of Economic Security, a far-right female politician endorsed by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in the 2021 previous leadership election and now chasing them, has rapidly emerged as a 'dark horse.'
Shigeru Ishiba (67), former Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party. [Photo by Yonhap News]
The Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) reported on the 16th that in a survey conducted from the 13th to 15th with TV Tokyo targeting 902 men and women aged 18 and over (valid respondents), Shigeru Ishiba, former Secretary-General, received 26% of responses, ranking first as the most suitable candidate for the next LDP president. In Nikkei's August survey, Ishiba's support was 18%, ranking second, but it rose by 8 percentage points in just one month.
Meanwhile, former Environment Minister Koizumi's support dropped by 3 percentage points (from 23% to 20%) compared to a month ago, losing the top spot. It is also notable that Sanae Takaichi, Minister in charge of Economic Security, ranked third, saw a sharp increase of 5 percentage points (from 11% to 16%).
In a survey by Asahi Shimbun conducted on the 14th and 15th with 1,070 respondents, Ishiba ranked first with 26%, Koizumi second with 21%, and Takaichi third with 11%. In last month's survey by the same newspaper, Koizumi and Ishiba were tied for first place with 21% each.
In a general public opinion poll conducted by Yomiuri Shimbun from the 13th to 15th with 1,040 respondents, the suitability ratings for LDP president were highest for Ishiba (27%), followed by Koizumi (21%) and Takaichi (13%). Especially in a separate survey of LDP party members (Japanese nationals paying party dues) and party supporters (members of LDP-affiliated political organizations) who can actually participate in the LDP leadership election, as well as members of parliament, Ishiba and Takaichi showed even stronger support compared to the general public poll.
First, in a survey of 1,500 party members and supporters conducted on the 14th and 15th, 26% supported Ishiba, the highest, but this was close to the 25% who supported Takaichi, ranked second. Koizumi was third with 16%.
The LDP leadership election combines 367 votes from members of parliament and 367 votes from party members and supporters. If no candidate wins a majority, a runoff is held between the top two candidates, combining 367 parliamentary votes and 47 local votes from the 47 prefectures to decide the winner.
Based on this survey, the estimated votes from party members and supporters proportional to the response rates were 97 for Ishiba, 94 for Takaichi, and 60 for Koizumi.
However, in a survey of 352 LDP members of parliament (96% of total MPs) regarding their support intentions, Koizumi was the most supported with 45 votes, followed by former Minister of Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi (40 votes), Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi (35 votes), and LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi (33 votes). Takaichi received 29 votes, Ishiba 26 votes, and 91 MPs were undecided or refused to answer.
Yomiuri noted that the combined support from party members, supporters, and MPs was tied at 123 votes each for Ishiba and Takaichi, with Koizumi third at 105 votes, suggesting that no candidate is likely to secure a majority outright, and the final outcome will be decided in a runoff. They also predicted that factional consolidation might occur during the runoff.
Jiji Press also reported on the 15th that in a survey of LDP MPs, Koizumi, former Minister of Economic Security Kobayashi, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi, and Secretary-General Motegi each received support from around 35 MPs. Although Ishiba and Takaichi had fewer MP supporters, they were more popular in local organizations, the agency added.
In a poll conducted by Sankei Shimbun together with the private broadcaster Fuji News Network (FNN) from the 14th to 15th with 1,012 respondents regarding LDP leadership preferences, Ishiba ranked first with 25.6%, Koizumi second with 21.9%, followed by Takaichi with 12.5%, Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa with 5.5%, and Digital Minister Taro Kono with 4.6%.
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