Eyes on the October 16 By-Election... Why Each Party's Survival Is at Stake [AK Radio]

Seoul Superintendent of Education, Jeonnam By-election
Democratic Party VS Joguk Innovation Party... Fierce Competition

On the upcoming October 16th, a crucial political by-election is scheduled to take place in the Republic of Korea. This election will select the Seoul Metropolitan Office of Education Superintendent and four local government heads. Intense competition is expected between the Democratic Party and the Joguk Innovation Party in the mayoral races of Gokseong County and Yeonggwang County in Jeonnam Province. This by-election is seen as a stage to test the local support bases of both parties and is analyzed as an important turning point that will gauge the political futures of Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party, and Jo Guk, leader of the Joguk Innovation Party.

Why the 10.16 By-Election Is Especially Important

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The by-election scheduled for October 16, 2023, is divided into elections for local government heads and the education superintendent. The Seoul Metropolitan Office of Education Superintendent election is being held because former Superintendent Cho Hee-yeon lost eligibility due to a guilty verdict. Additionally, new local government heads are being elected in Jeonnam’s Gokseong and Yeonggwang counties due to reasons such as election invalidation and death. This election holds significance beyond a simple local election. It represents a direct confrontation between the Democratic Party and the Joguk Innovation Party and is expected to be a critical moment determining the future political fate of both parties.

The Democratic Party traditionally holds a strong support base in the Honam region. In particular, Gokseong and Yeonggwang have long been known as Democratic Party strongholds. However, with the recent emergence of the Joguk Innovation Party, which is gradually expanding its influence in Honam, this election is not merely about electing local officials but is viewed as an important opportunity to determine whether the political balance in Honam will shift.

Seoul Metropolitan Office of Education Superintendent By-Election: A Battle Between Progressives and Conservatives

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The Seoul Metropolitan Office of Education Superintendent election has historically been a significant contest between progressives and conservatives. This by-election is intensifying political fervor as leading candidates from both camps step forward. From the progressive camp, former Seoul Education Superintendent Kwak No-hyun is a major candidate, while from the conservative camp, former lawmaker Cho Jeon-hyeok is the key contender. Both present contrasting educational policy positions and are striving to win the votes of Seoul citizens.

Former Superintendent Kwak No-hyun has a history of a guilty verdict related to illegal political funding during a past candidate unification process. Conversely, former lawmaker Cho Jeon-hyeok was punished for illegally leaking the list of the Korean Teachers and Education Workers Union (KTU). Due to these backgrounds, the Seoul education superintendent election has faced criticism from some quarters as a “contest between ex-convicts.” Nevertheless, both candidates emphasize their policy capabilities and visions, deploying strategies to secure victory.

Currently, whether the progressive and conservative camps can unify their candidates is emerging as a crucial variable that could determine the election outcome. In past education superintendent elections, candidates who succeeded in unification mostly won, so the result this time is expected to heavily depend on which camp achieves unification. Both progressive and conservative camps are pushing for unification, but it remains uncertain whether it will be realized due to rivalry among candidates.

Jeonnam Gokseong County and Yeonggwang County Mayoral Elections: Clash Between the Democratic Party and Joguk Innovation Party

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The hottest regions in this by-election are undoubtedly Gokseong and Yeonggwang in Jeonnam Province. These areas have traditionally been strongholds of the Democratic Party, but the emergence of the Joguk Innovation Party is changing the political landscape in Honam. The Democratic Party has nominated former Jeonnam Provincial Assembly member Jo Sang-rae for Gokseong County mayor and former Jeonnam Provincial Assembly member Jang Se for Yeonggwang County mayor. Meanwhile, the Joguk Innovation Party has put forward Park Woong-du, former head of the Gokseong Education Hope Coalition, for Gokseong mayor, and Kim Dae-jung, chairman of the Yeonggwang branch of the Kim Dae-jung Foundation, for Yeonggwang mayor.

The Democratic Party has long maintained an advantage in Honam based on strong organizational power, but this election is expected to be more fiercely contested due to the challenge from the Joguk Innovation Party. Notably, candidate Kim, chairman of the Yeonggwang branch of the Kim Dae-jung Foundation, left the Democratic Party criticizing unfairness in the party’s nomination process and immediately joined the Joguk Innovation Party to run, making his candidacy a major issue in the local community. This will be an important test of whether the Joguk Innovation Party can expand its influence even in Honam, the Democratic Party’s stronghold.

The Joguk Innovation Party is strongly expressing its intention to grow beyond a one-time proportional representation party into a sustainable political party through this election. Leader Jo Guk has stated he will “live on monthly rent in Honam,” focusing his election campaign in the region, symbolizing the party’s determination to target Honam.

Policy Differences and Election Strategies Between the Democratic Party and Joguk Innovation Party

The policy differences between the Democratic Party and the Joguk Innovation Party in this by-election are not pronounced. Both parties fundamentally lean progressive and share similar broad policy directions. However, the Joguk Innovation Party is pursuing a strategy to attract attention from its support base by delivering more radical and clear messages rather than following the Democratic Party’s policies. The Joguk Innovation Party criticizes the Democratic Party’s administrative inertia and maintenance of vested interests in Honam, emphasizing change and innovation.

In particular, the Joguk Innovation Party is playing the ‘unification’ card to win the election. It has proposed unification with the Democratic Party in the Geumjeong District Office election and has made strategic concessions such as yielding the candidate for Ganghwa County mayor. However, the Democratic Party is showing a passive attitude toward unification with the Joguk Innovation Party and publicly maintains a stance of fair competition. This has heightened tensions between the two parties, which are expected to remain high until the day before the election.

The Joguk Innovation Party is aware that failure to win this election could severely damage the party’s existence and is employing maximum election strategies to overcome this crisis. On the other hand, the Democratic Party is showing strong determination to solidify its support in Honam and leave no room for the Joguk Innovation Party.

Political Impact of the Election Results

This by-election will be a crucial test that will determine the political fate of the Democratic Party and the Joguk Innovation Party. Especially, the results of the Jeonnam Gokseong County and Yeonggwang County mayoral elections are expected to be important turning points that will decide the future political balance amid the competition between the two parties. Both Lee Jae-myung and Jo Guk are paying close attention to the election results, which could directly affect their political futures.

While the Democratic Party still enjoys strong support in Honam, if the Joguk Innovation Party achieves meaningful results in this election, the political landscape in Honam could change. In particular, if the Joguk Innovation Party wins in Gokseong or Yeonggwang, it would signal a weakening of the Democratic Party’s monopoly in Honam.

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