[Yeonggwang County Governor By-election] Jang Se-il 29.8% · Jang Hyeon 30.3%

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In the October 16 by-election for the mayor of Yeonggwang County, Jeollanam-do, candidates Jang Se-il of the Democratic Party and Jang Hyun of the Party for National Innovation are engaged in an extremely close race within the margin of error.

On the 12th, the Honam Reporting Headquarters of Asia Economy, in collaboration with Namdo Ilbo and News1 Gwangju-Jeonnam Headquarters, commissioned the polling specialist Realmeter to conduct a survey over two days from the 10th to the 11th targeting 506 men and women aged 18 and over residing in Yeonggwang County, Jeollanam-do. The virtual matchup for the Yeonggwang County mayor by-election showed Jang Hyun of the Party for National Innovation at 30.3% and Jang Se-il of the Democratic Party at 29.8%. The gap between them was a razor-thin 0.5 percentage points, within the margin of error (95% confidence level ±4.4 percentage points).

Lee Seok-ha of the Progressive Party ranked third with 19.0%. Independent candidate Yang Jae-hwi received 5.7%, while independents Kim Gi-yeol and Oh Gi-won each scored 1.1%, showing weak results. Respondents who answered ‘Other candidates,’ ‘None,’ or ‘Don’t know’ accounted for 5.6%, 3.4%, and 4.1%, respectively.

In a separate question about the likelihood of winning regardless of support, the Democratic Party candidate and the Party for National Innovation candidate competed closely within the margin of error, with 36.0% and 31.0%, respectively. Following them were the Progressive Party candidate at 16.6%, independents at 6.7%, and other candidates at 3.3%. Those who answered ‘Don’t know’ made up 6.4%.

In party support surveys, the Democratic Party and the Party for National Innovation showed support rates of 37.3% and 34.3%, respectively, also competing closely within the margin of error.

Judging from these survey results alone, the current race appears to be a two-horse race between the Party for National Innovation candidate and the Democratic Party candidate, with the Progressive Party candidate making a fierce pursuit. This is why there is speculation that a nail-biting contest will continue until the very last moment.

When asked about their intention to vote, 82.1% of all respondents expressed their willingness to vote. Among them, 57.8% said they would ‘definitely vote,’ and 24.3% said they would ‘try to vote.’

Regarding the criteria for choosing a candidate, 32.5% selected ‘morality/integrity.’ Since this by-election is being held due to the confirmed loss of office of former Yeonggwang County mayor Kang Jong-man for violating the Public Official Election Act, this is interpreted as reflecting the local residents’ strong desire for a clean and transparent public office more than ever before.

Following that were ‘candidate ability/experience’ (27.4%), ‘policies and pledges’ (18.7%), ‘contribution to the region’ (7.8%), ‘electability’ (6.0%), and ‘affiliated party’ (5.1%). ‘Other or don’t know’ responses accounted for 2.6%.

Among the major issues in Yeonggwang County, 28.9% of respondents said ‘revitalization of the local economy’ and 24.7% said ‘overcoming the risk of regional extinction’ should be prioritized, both showing proportions in the 20% range. Those who considered ‘extension of the lifespan of Hanbit Nuclear Power Plant Units 1 and 2 and installation of a nuclear waste storage facility’ urgent accounted for 18.2%. The ‘offshore wind power project’ and ‘Daema Industrial Complex/e-mobility industry revitalization’ received 10.4% and 5.6%, respectively. Other issues or ‘don’t know’ responses made up 12.2%.

The survey was conducted using an automated response system (ARS) with 90% wireless virtual numbers and 10% landline RDD provided by the three major domestic telecommunications companies. The response rate was 12.1%. The sampling error is ±4.4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

Statistical adjustments were made by applying weights by gender, age group, and region based on the resident registration population statistics from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety as of the end of July 2024. For more details, please refer to the website of the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission.