US Betting Platform Company 'Kalsi'
Wins Against Regulators Over Majority Party Prediction Product in US Congress
Reports have emerged that 'election betting,' which even 'casino paradise' Las Vegas prohibits, is showing signs of becoming legalized in the United States.
On the 11th (local time), the Associated Press reported, "As the scope of legal gambling in the U.S. is rapidly expanding, courts may open the door for Americans to legally bet on election outcomes."
The issue originated from a lawsuit between the U.S. betting platform Kalshi and the regulatory authority, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Kalshi offers derivative contracts that allow betting on various future events ranging from weather and interest rate directions to the Super Bowl winner and the release date of Swift's next album.
Last September, the CFTC banned Kalshi from offering a product predicting which party would hold the majority in the U.S. House and Senate, deeming it illegal gambling against the public interest. Kalshi sued the CFTC, arguing the action exceeded their authority, and Judge Zia M. Coppedge of the Washington D.C. federal court ruled in favor of Kalshi last week.
Tarek Mansour, co-founder of Kalshi, celebrated the ruling, saying, "The U.S. election prediction market has opened for the first time in 100 years." Meanwhile, the CFTC criticized, stating, "We are in a difficult position as we have received the news of the loss without any explanation or specific reasoning behind the ruling," adding, "At a time when distrust in elections is higher than ever, the contracts Kalshi seeks to list could damage public perception of election fairness and undermine trust."
Locally, public opinion is sharply divided over the legalization of betting on election results. Supporters argue that allowing U.S. betting platforms like Kalshi to operate within the law is safer for users than accessing foreign betting sites via circumvention, and that it could provide valuable data for political scientists. Opponents worry that monetary incentives for voters to support specific candidates could become rampant, commercializing and fundamentally distorting elections.
The Associated Press explained, "Gamblers are already betting on election outcomes through foreign websites, and election betting is already a widespread practice in Europe," adding, "Several major U.S. sports betting companies are poised to build systems immediately if betting on U.S. presidential election results is legalized." However, Kalshi is currently pushing to list the majority party prediction product for the House and Senate within this month, but the court accepted the CFTC's request for a stay, putting a hold on it until the 22nd.
Meanwhile, on the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, cryptocurrency holders are actively betting on who will occupy the White House this November. As of 10:55 a.m. (Korean time) on the day, the amount wagered on the U.S. presidential election results approaches approximately $885 million. According to the platform, bettors currently see the chances of Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump and Democratic vice-presidential candidate Kamala Harris winning as tied at 50% each.
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