Held on the 13th at the 2nd floor conference hall of the Bank of Korea annex
The Bank of Korea announced on the 12th that it plans to hold a joint forum with the Korean Statistical Society on the 13th under the theme of "Prediction, Explanation, and Response to Economic Changes."
At this forum, the two organizations will share research trends on 'time series analysis,' which is frequently used in analyzing economic and financial conditions, and results on 'responses of economic statistics to enhance explanatory power' amid increasing economic uncertainty, while exploring future challenges.
The event will be attended by practitioners and analysis experts involved in statistics compilation from academia, government agencies, and the Bank of Korea, who will present research findings and share related knowledge. The forum will proceed through three sessions including an opening address by Kim Dong-wook, President of the Korean Statistical Society, a welcome speech by Yoo Sang-dae, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Korea, followed by invited lectures, paper presentations, and discussions.
In Session 1, Hwang Sun-young, Professor of Statistics at Sookmyung Women’s University, will introduce various statistical techniques to accurately measure the volatility of high-frequency time series data, which has been widely used recently in economic time series analysis, and present empirical analysis results. In particular, the method proposed by Professor Hwang is expected to have great potential for future application, as it is useful for estimating volatility in time series data measured in very short time intervals, such as stock indices.
Session 2 will examine methodologies to better predict and explain future situations using financial economic time series data. The first presenter, Sung Byung-chan, Professor of Applied Statistics at Chung-Ang University, will propose and discuss ways to enhance the predictive power of traditional time series models, which are relatively less accurate compared to deep learning models. The second presenter, Lee Tae-wook, Professor of Statistics at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, will introduce recent issues related to impulse response analysis, which is mainly used for effect analysis of economic policies and changes in the economic environment.
Session 3 will present recent response achievements by the Bank of Korea to enhance the explanatory power of statistics amid increasing economic uncertainty. The first presenter, Ha Nam-young, Manager of the National Income General Team at the Bank of Korea, will introduce the main contents of the 2020 base year revision of the national accounts and explain key indicators such as growth trends, per capita national income, savings rate, and investment rate viewed through the revised time series. The second presenter, Lee Woong, Manager of the Statistics Survey Team at the Bank of Korea, will introduce the background and compilation plan of the Corporate Business Sentiment Index (CBSI), which comprehensively reflects companies’ overall sentiment about the economic situation, and present the compilation results focusing on the characteristics of the new index.
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