NYT Poll Conducted
Trump and Harris Support Rates Neck and Neck... Battleground States Also Tight
October 10 TV Debate, Critical Variable in Presidential Election
Harris Faces Biggest Test to Prove Presidential Candidate Qualifications
Trump Must Build Calm and Controlled Image
Former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate in the United States, is narrowly leading Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, in the polls. This marks the end of the so-called 'Harris honeymoon,' during which Harris's approval ratings had been on the rise since she replaced the previous Democratic candidate. Both sides are preparing for a decisive showdown in the upcoming TV debate on the 10th, which is expected to be a critical turning point in the tightly contested U.S. presidential race. Currently, no additional debate dates have been scheduled, meaning there is effectively no opportunity for a comeback. Both campaigns are making thorough preparations for the debate, making it the most anticipated event in the presidential election.
Trump 48% vs Harris 47%... Extremely Close Polling Race
According to a poll released on the 8th (local time) by The New York Times (NYT) in collaboration with Siena College, conducted from the 3rd to the 6th among 1,695 registered voters nationwide, former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 1 percentage point with 48% support to Harris's 47% (margin of error ±3 percentage points). This is similar to the poll conducted in late July, shortly after President Joe Biden announced his intention to withdraw from the presidential race. At that time, Trump led Harris by 2 percentage points with 48% to 46%. Although Harris's honeymoon effect was expected to last for a long time, this poll confirms that Trump's hidden support base remains solid.
In battleground states that will decide the election outcome, both candidates are locked in a tight race. In four of the seven battleground states?Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona?Trump and Harris are tied at 48% each. However, in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, Harris leads Trump by 1 to 2 percentage points.
Regarding trust in their ability to perform on key issues, Trump scored 55% and 53% on economic and immigration policies respectively, which is 10 to 13 percentage points higher than Harris's 42% and 43%. Harris, on the other hand, leads Trump with 54% trust on abortion policy and 50% on democracy, surpassing Trump’s 29% and 45% by 15 and 5 percentage points respectively.
First TV Debate on the 10th... A Critical Turning Point That Could Change the Election Landscape
Amid this, the two candidates will face off in the first TV debate, hosted by ABC, on the 10th at 9 p.m. Eastern Time in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, lasting 90 minutes. Since President Biden, who struggled in the June debate, withdrew from the race due to age and cognitive concerns, this debate is expected to be a major variable that could determine the election outcome.
The debate rules remain the same as in June. Both candidates will enter the debate room essentially empty-handed. Only a pen, a blank notepad, and a bottle of water are allowed. During the 90-minute debate, there will be two breaks for commercials, but neither candidate can communicate with their campaign staff. The controversial microphone operation timing will be the same as last time, with microphones muted when the opposing candidate is speaking. Harris's campaign had insisted that the microphone remain on throughout to highlight Trump's image as a 'disruptor,' but both sides ultimately agreed to keep microphones on only during their own speaking time, as before.
With the honeymoon effect fading, this TV debate will be the biggest test for Vice President Harris to prove her qualifications as president. Although her sharp rhetoric as a former prosecutor is a strength, she faces the challenge of demonstrating her capabilities as a presidential candidate through policy understanding and handling unexpected variables. Given her lack of presence and clear achievements during her vice presidency, she will need to present her own distinct color and vision. Defending against Trump's attacks on policies that have hindered President Biden, such as inflation and illegal immigration, is also Harris's task. Compared to the experienced and seasoned Trump, who has ample presidential debate experience, Harris is considered relatively the 'weaker' candidate, so it will be interesting to see if she can intensify her offense by pressing Trump from the start.
On the other hand, it is important for former President Trump to calm down and build a restrained image. Maintaining the composure and cool attitude that led to his decisive victory over Biden in the June debate is key. The campaign is concerned that if Trump shows contempt or a lecturing attitude toward Harris, it could cost him votes.
The NYT analyzed, "After Biden's unstable performance was broadcast live to 51 million viewers, his mental health became a national conversation, and three weeks later he withdrew from the presidential race. The recent noisy leadership change in the Democratic Party signals that Tuesday night is both an opportunity and a moment of serious risk."
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